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【目的】中小流域地形复杂，且极端降雨事件频发，致使其洪峰突发性强、时空响应机制复杂，是目前洪水风险管理中的薄弱环节。其中，降雨历时、强度和暴雨中心位置等降雨时空特征是驱动洪峰形成的关键因素，系统量化降雨时空分布特征对洪峰流量的影响，可为中小流域洪水风险管理提供科学依据。【方法】以永定河中游（官厅水库—卢沟桥段）为例，基于2023年洪水资料，采用HEC-HMS模型，系统模拟了45种降雨情景（3种历时、3种重现期与5种暴雨中心位置），构建暴雨地形综合指数（Comprehensive Storm-Terrain Index， CSTI）定量分析降雨时空特征对洪峰流量的影响。【结果】结果显示：短历时暴雨（24h）下，重现期50a时暴雨中心从上游移至下游，洪峰流量增幅可达603%；中上游清水涧子流域100a时，洪峰流量较暴雨中心位于出口的情景高16%；长历时降雨（48h/72h）下，洪峰流量受暴雨中心位置影响的空间变幅仅为4%～8%。【结论】结果表明：（1）短历时暴雨下，洪峰受暴雨中心位置控制显著，中上游清水涧子流域受地形与暴雨中心位置耦合影响最为显著，为洪峰放大高潜力区；（2）长历时降雨下，洪峰形成机制由多支流汇流相位叠加主导，洪峰流量受暴雨中心位置影响较小。研究成果可为永定河防洪为代表的中小流域“四预”体系提供差异化的雨量预警依据。
Abstract：[Objective] Small- and medium-sized watersheds are characterized by complex terrain and frequent extreme rainfall events， resulting in sudden flood peaks and complex spatiotemporal response mechanisms. Therefore， they represent weak links in current flood risk management. Spatiotemporal rainfall characteristics such as duration， intensity， and storm center location are key factors driving the formation of flood peaks. Systematically quantifying the influence of spatiotemporal rainfall distribution on flood peak discharge can provide a scientific basis for flood risk management in small- and medium-sized watersheds. [Methods] The middle reaches of the Yongding River (from Guanting Reservoir to Lugou Bridge) were taken as the study area， and the 2023 flood data and the HEC-HMS model were used to systematically simulate 45 rainfall scenarios (three durations， three return periods， and five storm center locations). A comprehensive storm-terrain index (CSTI) was established to quantitatively analyze the influence of spatiotemporal rainfall characteristics on flood peak discharge. [Results] The results showed that under short-duration storms (24 h) with a 50-year return period， the flood peak discharge increased by up to 603% when the storm center shifted from upstream to downstream. For the Qingshuijian sub-basin in the middle and upper reaches， under the 100-year return period scenario， the flood peak discharge was 16% higher than that when the storm center was located at the outlet. Under long-duration rainfall (48 h/72 h)， the spatial variation range of flood peak discharge affected by the storm center location was only 4%～8%. [Conclusion] The results indicate that: (1) under short-duration storms， the flood peak is significantly controlled by the storm center location. The Qingshuijian sub-basin in the middle and upper reaches is most affected by the coupling effect of terrain and storm center location， making it a high-potential zone for flood peak amplification. (2) Under long-duration rainfall， the formation mechanism of the flood peak is dominated by the phase superposition of multi-tributary confluence， and the flood peak discharge is less affected by the storm center location. The findings can provide a differentiated rainfall warning basis for the “Four-Pre” (Forecasting， Early Warning， Simulation， and Preparedness) system for flood control in small- and medium-sized watersheds， as exemplified by the Yongding River.
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基本信息:
中图分类号:TV122.5
引用信息:
[1]苗蔚,曾博洋,张尚弘,等.中小流域洪峰对降雨时空分布特征的响应研究：以永定河中游为例[J].水利水电技术(中英文)().
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金联合基金重点项目(U2340204); 国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(52109084，52409095)
2026-09-02
2026-09-02
2026-09-02