水利水电技术（中英文）

依据黄河上游古树年轮、旱涝等级和相邻河流径流量等资料及其与兰州站汛期天然径流量的关系,重建522年径流量序列,分析了其历史变化特点和未来趋势。结果表明:(1)重建序列与现有序列具有较好的一致性;(2)近522年径流量变化具有较明显的阶段性、周期性特点,大致经历了8个枯水段和7个丰水段;(3)未来46年平均的汛期径流量为275亿m3左右,较常年偏多约4%,期间可分为平水、丰水、偏枯和偏丰的4个时段。

Based on the relationship between the recorded natural runoff in flood season from Lanzhou Station and the runoff data of the rivers nearby, the rings of the ancient trees and the magnitude of drought and flood therein, a 522-year runoff series at Lanzhou Station is reconstructed; for which the characteristics and variation trend of this series are analyzed herein. The study results show that:(1)the constructed series is well in consistent with the recorded runoff series;(2)the 522-year runoff series has significant phase and periodic variation feature with the experienced 8 low-flow periods and 7 high-flow periods;(3)the mean annual natural runoff in flood season for the future 46 years,is to be about 27.5 billions m3, which is 4% more than the annual mean runoff of the normal year; and the period includes 4 phases of mean-flow, high-flow, lower-flow and higher-flow as well.