水利水电技术（中英文）

跟踪监测与评估是分析水库移民工作实施效果、把握移民安置活动进展的重要手段。通过对三峡库区移民生产生活水平跟踪监测调查方案分析可知，其抽样方法在覆盖度、代表性、抽样效率方面仍有改进空间，且现有抽样方案基本未考虑样本老化造成的代表性降低问题。由此，立足于统计学理论，从扩大样本量规模、设计样本轮换方式与辅助变量、科学确定抽样单元等手段对其进行研究改进，并补充了样本轮换下的均值指标估计方法以及调查指标的方差估计方法，提出了改进后的三峡移民抽样方法及估计方法，为实践应用提供了指导，也为类似的大规模社会经济调查研究提供了重要参考。

Tracking, monitoring and evaluation are important means of analysing the effectiveness of reservoir migration implementation and grasping the progress of migrant resettlement activities. Through the analysis of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area migrants' production and living standard tracking and monitoring survey programme, it is known that there is still room for improvement in the sampling method in terms of coverage, representativeness and sampling efficiency, and the existing sampling programme basically fails to take into account the problem of decreasing representativeness caused by aging of the samples. As a result, this paper is based on statistical theory, from expanding the sample size scale, designing the sample rotation method and auxiliary variables, scientifically determining the sampling unit and other means of research and improvement, and supplemented with the estimation method of the mean index under sample rotation and the estimation method of the variance of the survey indexes, and puts forward the improved sampling method and estimation method of the Three Gorges migrants, which provides a guide to the practical application and an important reference for the research of the similar large-scale It also provides an important reference for similar large-scale socio-economic survey research.