| 534 | 4 | 464 |
| 下载次数 | 被引频次 | 阅读次数 |
【目的】嫩江流域地处中高纬度地区，对全球气候变化极为敏感，因此，需进一步探究未来气候变化下嫩江流域极端水文变化趋势，为区域洪旱灾害管理提供理论支撑。【方法】选取嫩江流域控制水文站—大赉水文站，以1963—2018年为历史时期，以CMIP6不同SSP情境下(SSP126、SSP370和SSP585)气象要素数据为驱动，采用率定和验证后的HYDROTEL模型模拟未来气候变化下2025—2100年日径流量，并提取洪峰流量指标(最大日流量、最大5 d流量和丰水天数)和枯水流量指标(枯水天数和连续干旱天数),分析未来气候变化下嫩江流域极端水文演变特征。【结果】结果表明：(1)未来气候变化下，嫩江流域不同SSP情景下极端水文风险变化趋势差异明显。三种情景下洪峰流量指标均无显著性变化趋势；在SSP1-2.6情景下枯水流量指标呈显著上升趋势，而在SSP3-7.0情景下枯水流量指标呈显著下降趋势；在SSP5-8.5情景下连续干旱天数呈显著性下降趋势。(2)不同时段，洪峰流量指标和枯水流量指标变化趋势和波动特征有所差异。三种情景下在近期(2025—2050年)、中期(2051—2070年)和远期(2071—2090年)不同指标均值相较于历史时期存在一定差异，特别在SSP5-8.5情景下远期最大日流量、最大5 d流量均值相较于历史时期分别偏高44.3%、38.2%。【结论】未来随着辐射强迫的增加，发生洪涝的强度和频次呈明显的上升趋势，发生干旱的强度和频次呈一定的下降趋势。分析未来气候变化情景下嫩江流域极端水文演变特征，可为嫩江流域的农业旱涝风险对应、流域水安全保障以及水资源综合管理等提供了一定的参考。
Abstract：[Objective]Global climate change causes frequent occurrence of extreme hydrology, threatening regional water security and ecological security. The Nenjiang River Basin is located in the middle and high latitudes and is highly sensitive to global changes. However, how hydrological extremes will evolve under future climate change remains unclear.[Methods]Selecting the Dalain Hydrological Station, a control hydrological station in the Nenjiang River Basin, changes in hydrological extremes were investigated under future climate change. The meteorological data under different SSP scenarios(SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) of CMIP6 were used as driving climatic factors. The calibrated and validated HYDROTEL model was employed to simulate the daily runoff volume from 2025 to 2100 under future climate change. Peak flow indicators(maximum daily flow, maximum 5-day flow, and flood days) and low-flow indicators(low-flow days and consecutive dry days) were extracted to analyze the extreme hydrological evolution characteristics of the Nenjiang River Basin under future climate change.[Results]The result showed as follows:(1) Under future climate change, the variation trend of extreme hydrological risk in Nenjiang River Basin under different SSP scenarios will be divergent. There is no significant change trend in the peak discharge index under the three scenarios. In the SSP1-2.6 scenario, the low water flow index will witness a significant upward trend, while in the SSP3-7.0 scenario, the low water flow index will experience a significant downward trend. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the number of consecutive drought days will witness a significant decreasing trend.(2) The change trend and fluctuation characteristics of peak flood discharge index and low water discharge index are different in different periods. In the three scenarios, the mean values of different indicators in the near term(2025—2050), the medium term(2051—2070) and the long term(2071—2090) show certain differences compared with the historical period. Particular in the scenario of SSP5-8.5, the mean values of the long-term maximum daily flow and the maximum 5 d flow will be 44.3% and 38.2% higher than during historical period respectively. [Conclusion]Under the future climate change, the intensity and frequency of floods will show a significant upward trend, while the intensity and frequency of droughts will show a certain downward trend in the Nenjiang River Basin. It can provide important references for the mitigation of agricultural drought and flood risks, water security guarantee, and comprehensive water resources management in the Nenjiang River Basin.
[1] STEVENSON S,COATS S,TOUMA D,et al.Twenty-first century hydroclimate:A continually changing baseline,with more frequent extremes[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2022,119(12):e2108124119.
[2] 郑芳，李芳然，甘义群，等.极端气候事件对洞庭湖水文连通性变化的影响[J].南水北调与水利科技(中英文),2024,22(1):67-79.ZHENG F,LI F R,GAN Y Q,et al.The impact of extreme climatic events on hydrological connectivity of Dongting Lake[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology,2024,22(1):67-79.
[3] 罗爽，许有鹏，王强，等.城市化背景下年最大日径流演变及影响因素研究：以长江下游秦淮河流域为例[J].湖泊科学，2023,35(6):2123-2132.LUO Shuang,XU Youpeng,WANG Qiang,et al.Study on the evolution of annual maximum daily runoff and its influencing factors under the background of urbanization:A case study of Qinhuai River Basin in the Lower reaches of the Yangtze River [J].Journal of Lake Science,2019,35(6):2123-2132.
[4] 宋晓猛，张建云，孔凡哲，等.北京地区降水极值时空演变特征[J].水科学进展，2017,28(2):161-173.SONG Xiaomeng,ZHANG Jianyun,KONG Fanzhe,et al.Spatial and temporal evolution of precipitation extremes in Beijing [J].Advances in Water Science,2017,28(2):161-173.
[5] 虞畅，金君良，王国庆，等.黄河源区典型流域水文要素演变及其对气候变化的响应[J].南水北调与水利科技(中英文),2024,22(5):845-855.YU C,JIN J L,WANG G Q,et al.Evolution of hydrological elements in typical watersheds of the Yellow River source area and their response to climate change[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology,2024,22(5):845-855.
[6] AGHAKOUCHAK A,MIRCHI A,MADANI K,et al.Anthropogenic drought:Definition,challenges,and opportunities[J].Reviews of Geophysics,2021,59(2):e2019RG000683.
[7] PARK T,HASHIMOTO H,WANG W,et al.What does global land climate look like at 2° C warming?[J].Earth’s Future,2023,11(5):e2022EF003330.
[8] 刘洁，黄本胜，陈晓宏，等.GPM 遥感降水产品在广东省的极端降水事件适用性分析[J].南水北调与水利科技(中英文),2023,21(1):87-94.LIU J,HUANG B S,CHEN X H,et al.Applicability analysis of GPM remote sensing precipitation products in extreme precipitation events in Guangdong Province[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology,2023,21(1):87-94.
[9] 李文鑫，金君良，舒章康，等.气候变化对嘉陵江流域水资源和极端水文事件的影响[J].水利水运工程学报，2024(2):20-33.LI Wenxin,JIN Junliang,SHU Zhangkang,et al.Impacts of climate change on water resources and extreme hydrological events in Jialing River Basin [J].Hydro-Science and Engineering,2024(2):20-33.
[10] 梅嘉洺，唐亚男，李仪，等.基于SWAT模型的旬河流域气候变化水文响应研究[J].水生态学杂志，2021,42(3):7-13.MEI Jiaming,TANG Yanan,LI Yi,et al.Study on hydrological response to climate change in the Shizhe River Basin based on SWAT model [J].Journal of Hydroecology,2021,42(3):7-13.
[11] WU Y,SUN J,XU Y J,et al.Projection of future hydrometeorological extremes and wetland flood mitigation services with different global warming levels:A case study in the Nenjiang river basin[J].Ecological Indicators,2022,140:108987.
[12] SUN J,CHEN W,HU B,et al.Roles of reservoirs in regulating basin flood and droughts risks under climate change:Historical assessment and future projection[J].Journal of Hydrology:Regional Studies,2023,48:101453.
[13] 林程，吴辉明.龙岗河流域2023年“9·7”极端特大暴雨洪涝反演分析[J].水利发展研究，2024,24(10):117-125.LIN Cheng,WU Huiming.Inverse analysis of flood caused by 2023“9·7” extreme rainstorm in Longgang River Basin[J].Water Resources Development Research,2024,24(10):117-125.
[14] 王绍强，周成虎，刘纪远，等.东北地区陆地碳循环平衡模拟分析[J].地理学报，2001,56(4):390-400.WANG Shaoqiang,ZHOU Chenghu,LIU Jiyuan,et al.Simulation of terrestrial carbon cycle balance in Northeast China [J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2001,56(4):390-400.
[15] 李洁，张远东，顾峰雪，等.中国东北地区近50年净生态系统生产力的时空动态[J].生态学报，2014,34(6):1490-1502.LI Jie,ZHANG Yuandong,GU Fengxue,et al.Spatial and temporal dynamics of net ecosystem productivity in Northeast China over the past 50 years [J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2014,34(6):1490-1502.
[16] 董满宇，吴正方.近50年来东北地区气温变化时空特征分析[J].资源科学，2008(7):1093-1099.DONG Manyu,WU Zhengfang.Spatial and temporal characteristics of temperature change in Northeast China in recent 50 years [J].Resources Science,2008(7):1093-1099.
[17] 门宝辉，庞金凤，张腾，等.嫩江流域水文干旱归因分析及未来演变规律[J].水力发电学报，2023,42(10):60-74.MEN Baohui,PANG Jinfeng,ZHANG Teng,et al.Attribution analysis and future evolution of hydrological drought in Nenjiang River Basin [J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2023,42(10):60-74.
[18] 朱光磊，佟守正，赵春子.嫩江流域参考作物蒸散量时空变化及其气候归因[J].应用生态学报，2022,33(1):201-209.ZHU Guanglei,TONG Shouzheng,ZHAO Chunzi.Temporal and spatial variation of Reference crop evapotranspiration in Nenjiang River Basin and its climatic attribution [J].Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology,202,33(1):201-209.
[19] DONG L,ZHANG G.The dynamic evolvement and hydrological driving factors of marsh in Nenjiang River basin[J].Advances in Water Science,2013,24(2):177-183.
[20] WU Y F,ZHANG G X,SHEN H,et al.Attribute analysis of aridity variability in North Xinjiang,China[J].Advances in Meteorology,2016,(3):1-11.
[21] LI F,ZHANG G,LI H,et al.Land use change impacts on hydrology in the Nenjiang River Basin,Northeast China[J].Forests,2019,10(6):476.
[22] ZHENG Y,ZHANG G,WU Y,et al.Dam effects on downstream riparian wetlands:the Nenjiang River,Northeast China[J].Water,2019,11(10):2038.
[23] 华悦，叶磊，张海荣，等.嫩江下游多变量水文干旱特征研究[J].水文，2021,41(4):88-89.HUA Yue,YE Lei,ZHANG Hairong,et al.Study on multivariate hydrological drought characteristics in the lower reaches of Nenjiang River [J].Journal of Hydrology,2021,41(4):88-89.
[24] WU Y,SUN J,HU B,et al.Can the combining of wetlands with reservoir operation reduce the risk of future floods and droughts?[J].Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2023,27(14):2725-2745.
[25] WU Y,ZHANG G,ROUSSEAU A N,et al.On how wetlands can provide flood resilience in a large river basin:A case study in Nenjiang river Basin,China[J].Journal of Hydrology,2020,587:125012.
[26] 姜彤，吕嫣冉，黄金龙，等.CMIP6模式新情景(SSP-RCP)概述及其在淮河流域的应用[J].气象科技进展，2020,10(5):102-103.JIANG Tong,LV Yanran,HUANG Jinlong,et al.Overview of CMIP6 model New Scenario (SSP-RCP) and its application in Huaihe River Basin [J].Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology,2019,10(5):102-103.
[27] BOSSHARD T,KOTLARSKI S,EWEN T,et al.Spectral representation of the annual cycle in the climate change signal[J].Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2011,15(9):2777-2788.
[28] SHAFEEQUE M,LUO Y.A multi-perspective approach for selecting CMIP6 scenarios to project climate change impacts on glacio-hydrology with a case study in Upper Indus river basin[J].Journal of Hydrology,2021,599:126466.
[29] HUTCHINSON M F,XU T.ANUSPLIN version 4.4 user guide[M].Canberra:Centre for Resource and Environmental Studies,The Australian National University,2004.
[30] KNUTTI R,MASSON D,GETTELMAN A.Climate model genealogy:Generation CMIP5 and how we got there[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2013,40(6):1194-1199.
[31] ZHU H,JIANG Z,LI J,et al.Does CMIP6 inspire more confidence in simulating climate extremes over China?[J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,2020,37:1119-1132.
[32] DOTTORI F,SZEWCZYK W,CISCAR J C,et al.Increased human and economic losses from river flooding with anthropogenic warming[J].Nature Climate Change,2018,8(9):781-786.
[33] PATRA A,MIN S K,KUMAR P,et al.Changes in extreme ocean wave heights under 1.5 C,2 C,and 3 C global warming[J].Weather and Climate Extremes,2021,33:100358.
[34] 章燕喃.密云水库流域近三十年径流变化及归因分析[D].北京：清华大学，2015.ZHANG Yannan.Runoff change and attribution analysis in Miyun Reservoir Basin in recent 30 years [D].Beijing:Tsinghua University,2015.
[35] 吴燕锋.嫩江流域湿地水文过程模拟及其功能定量评估[D].长春：中国科学院大学(中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所),2020.WU Yanfeng.Simulation of wetland hydrological process and quantitative assessment of its function in Nenjiang River Basin [D].Changchun:University of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Northeast Institute of Geography and AgroEcology,Chinese Academy of Sciences),2020.
[36] RILEY J P,ISRAELSEN E K,EGGLESTON K O.Some Approaches to Snowmelt Prediction [M].NY:IAHS,1973.
[37] 葛诗阳，关铁生，刘艳丽，等.多源潜在蒸散发产品在雅鲁藏布江流域的适用性评估与融合[J].南水北调与水利科技(中英文),2024,22(3):491-501.GE S Y,GUAN T S,LIU Y L,et al.Applicability evaluation and fusion on multi-source potential evapotranspiration products in the Yarlung Zangbo River basin[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology,2024,22(3):491-501.
[38] RANKINEN K,KARVONEN T,BUTTERFIELD D.A simple model for predicting soil temperature in snow-covered and seasonally frozen soil:model description and testing[J].Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2004,8(4):706-716.
[39] FORTIN J P R,TURCOTTE S,MASSICOTTE R,et al.A distributed watershed model compatible with remote sensing and GIS data.Part 2:Application to the Chaudière watershed [J].Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2001,6 (2):100-108.
[40] NO?L P,ROUSSEAU A N,PANICONI C,et al.Algorithm for delineating and extracting hillslopes and hillslope width functions from gridded elevation data[J].Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2014,19(2):366-374.
[41] RANKINEN K,KARVONEN T,BUTTERFIELD D.A simple model for predicting soil temperature in snow-covered and seasonally frozen soil:model description and testing [J].Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions,2004,8(4):706-716.
[42] FORTIN V.Le Modèle Météo-apport HSAMI:Historique,Théorie et Application [R].Varennes,Québec,Canada:Institut de Recherche d’Hydro-Québec (IREQ),1995.
[43] 吴燕锋，章光新，齐鹏，等.耦合湿地模块的流域水文模型模拟效率评价[J].水科学进展，2019,30(3):326-336.WU Yanfeng,ZHANG Guangxin,QI Peng,et al.Evaluation of simulation efficiency of basin hydrological model coupled with wetland module [J].Advances in Water Science,2019,30(3):326-336.
[44] BAIN L J,ENGELHARDT M,WRIGHT F T.Tests for an increasing trend in the intensity of a Poisson process:A power study[J].Journal of the American Statistical Association,1985,80(390):419-422.
[45] BISAI D,CHATTERJEE S,KHAN A,et al.Application of sequential Mann-Kendall test for detection of approximate significant change point in surface air temperature for Kolkata weather observatory,west Bengal,India[J].International Journal of Current Research,2014,6(2):5319-5324.
[46] 汤秋鸿，徐锡蒙，周羽暄，等.全球变化背景下黄河流域水旱灾害演变及应对策略[J].水利发展研究，2025,25(2):13-20.TANG Qiuhong,XU Ximeng,ZHOU Yuxuan,et al.Evolution of floods and droughts in the Yellow River Basin under global change and relevant coping strategies[J].Water Resources Development Research,2025,25(2):13-20.
[47] FICKLIN D L,LUO Y,LUEDELING E,et al.Climate change sensitivity assessment of a highly agricultural watershed using SWAT[J].Journal of hydrology,2009,374(1/2):16-29.
[48] GUO Junting,ZHANG Zhiqiang,WANG Shengping,et al.Appling SWAT model to explore the impact of changesin land use and climate on the streamflow in a Watershed of Northern China[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2014,34(6):1559-1567.
[49] WU Mengying,WANG Zhonggen,DANG Suzhen.Simulation and analysis of runoff in the upper reaches of the Heihe River Basin[J].Resources Science,2012,34(10):1913-1921.
[50] 徐东霞，章光新，尹雄锐.近50年嫩江流域径流变化及影响因素分析[J].水科学进展，2009,20(3):416-421.XU Dongxia,ZHANG Guangxin,YIN Xiongrui.Runoff variation and its impacting factor in Nenjiang River during 1956—2006 [J].Advances in Water Science,2009,20 (3):416-421.
[51] WANG G,XIA J,CHEN J.Quantification of effects of climate variations and human activities on runoff by a monthly water balance model:A case study of the Chaobai River basin in northern China[J].Water resources research,2009,45(7):56-64.
[52] 朱欢欢，江志红，李肇新，等.统一框架下中国气候预估多模式集合策略对比[J].中国科学：地球科学，2023,53(9):2155-2171.ZHU Huanhuan,JIANG Zhihong,LI Zhaoxin,et al.Intercomparison of multi-model ensemble-processing strategies within a consistent framework for climate projection in China[J].Science China Earth Sciences,2023,53(9):2155-2171.
[53] KNUTTI R,SAEDLá E K J,SANDERSON B M,et al.A climate model projection weighting scheme accounting for performance and interdependence[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2017,44(4):1909-1918.
基本信息:
DOI：10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.07.008
中图分类号:P467;P333
引用信息:
[1]王彪,夏春龙,宋峥,等.未来气候变化情景下嫩江流域极端水文演变特征[J].水利水电技术(中英文),2025,56(07):109-123.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.07.008.
基金信息:
国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3200302); 国家自然科学基金项目(U2243230,421010514,42207088)
2025-01-13
2025-01-13
2025-01-13