| 240 | 9 | 67 |
| 下载次数 | 被引频次 | 阅读次数 |
黄浦江为感潮河流,低潮位重现期的确定对黄浦江航道的设计具有重要意义。为了准确估计黄浦江低潮位的重现期,以黄浦江下游吴淞口站年最低潮位序列为例,在对样本进行三性审查的基础上,分别采用传统的数理统计方法和时变矩方法进行水文频率分析。结果表明:吴淞口站年最低潮位序列在1996年发生了变异;还现修正后的序列服从位置参数线性时变的GEV模型,低潮位存在缓慢的上升趋势;一致性条件下百年一遇低潮位约为0.261 m,在非一致性条件下其重现期增大为150 a。非一致性条件下的重现期增大说明黄浦江现有的航道设计标准偏安全,航道通航保证率提高。
Abstract：The Huangpu River is a tidal current and the calculation of the return period of low tide level is of great significance to the design of its waterway. In this study, the annual minimum tide level(AMTL) records at Wusongkou Station are used to accurately estimate the return period of AMTL in the lower reaches of Huangpu River. The traditional frequency analysis method and the time-varying moment method are used to analyze the AMTL series on the basis of stationarity examination. The results show that the variation of the AMTL series has happened in 1996 and after the revision, the GEV distribution with a linear time-varying location parameter exhibits the best goodness-of-fit, which indicates a slowly rising trend in the low tide level. The 100-year low tide level is approximately 0.261 m and its return period increases to 150 years when nonstationarity is considered. The increase in the return period under nonstationarity indicates that the existing channel design standards in the Huangpu River are more secure and the navigation guarantee rate is increased.
[1] 中华人民共和国交通运输部.JTS 145- 2- 2013海港水文规范[S].北京:人民交通出版社,2013.
[2] 罗纯.Gumbel分布的参数估计及其在水位资料分析中的应用[D].上海:华东师范大学,2000.
[3] 孙毓华.海港工程设计潮位的概率分布问题[J].水运工程,1990(1):45- 49.
[4] HUANG W,XU S,NNAJI S.Evaluation of GEV model for frequency analysis of annual maximum water levels in the coast of United States[J].Ocean Engineering,2008,35(11):1132- 1147.
[5] XU S,HUANG W.Estimating extreme water levels with long-term data by GEV distribution at Wusong station near Shanghai city in Yangtze Estuary[J].Ocean Engineering,2011,38(2):468- 478.
[6] FENG J,JIANG W.Extreme water level analysis at three stations on the coast of the Northwestern Pacific Ocean[J].Ocean Dynamics,2015,65(11):1383- 1397.
[7] 华家鹏.上海黄浦江口设计潮位的分析[J].水文,1985(3):11- 18.
[8] 杜涛,熊立华,江聪.渭河流域降雨时间序列非一致性频率分析[J].干旱区地理,2014,37(3):468- 479.
[9] CHEN P C,WANG Y H,YOU J Y,et al.Comparison of Methods for Non-Stationary Hydrologic Frequency Analysis:Case Study using Annual Maximum Daily Precipitation in Taiwan[J].Journal of Hydrology,2016,545:197- 211.
[10] OBEYSEKERA J,SALAS J D.Frequency of Recurrent Extremes under Nonstationarity[J].Journal of Hydrologic Engineering,2016,21(5):04016005.
[11] DU T,XIONG L,XU C Y,et al.Return period and risk analysis of nonstationary low-flow series under climate change[J].Journal of Hydrology,2015,527:234- 250.
[12] 曾杭.非一致性洪水分析计算及对水利工程防洪影响研究[D].天津:天津大学,2015.
[13] 李国芳,陈阿平,华家鹏.设计潮位计算中若干问题探讨[J].水电能源科学,2006,24(3):35- 38.
[14] 史黎翔,宋松柏.具有趋势变异的非一致水文序列重现期计算研究[J].水力发电学报,2016,35(5):40- 46.
[15] 张弘,李琼芳,虞美秀,等.变化环境下黄浦江年最高潮位频率分析[J].水电能源科学,2014,32(7):1- 5.
[16] 中华人民共和国水利部.水利水电工程水文计算规范:SL278- 2002[S].北京:中国水利水电出版社,2002.
[17] 胡义明,梁忠民.基于跳跃分析的非一致性水文频率计算[J].东北水利水电,2011,29(7):38- 40.
[18] YUE S,PILON P,PHINNEY B,et al.The influence of autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in hydrological series[J].Hydrological Processes,2002,16(9):1807- 1829.
[19] SOBEY R J.Extreme low and high water levels[J].Coastal Engineering,2005,52(1):63- 77.
[20] 张家鸣,陈晓宏,叶长青.Pearson-Ⅲ型频率曲线对负偏水文序列的计算[J].水利学报,2012,43(11):1296- 1301.
[21] KATZ R W,PARLANGE M B,NAVEAU P,et al.Statistics of extremes in hydrology[J].Advances in Water Resources,2002,25(8):1287- 1304.
基本信息:
DOI：10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2019.09.009
中图分类号:U612.32
引用信息:
[1]周逸岑,李琪,顾圣华,等.黄浦江下游吴淞口站低潮位重现期研究[J].水利水电技术,2019,50(09):69-74.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2019.09.009.
基金信息:
“十三五”国家科技支撑计划课题“地域性村镇建筑洪灾灾变机理与区域防洪设计理论”(2018YFD1100401)