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【目的】在极端降雨趋强、洪水遭遇关系日趋复杂及水资源精细化利用需求不断提高的背景下，挖掘水库防洪与兴利的潜力，识别三峡工程自身防洪调节能力约束下汛期运行水位的关键阈值，为动态水位控制和洪水资源利用提供依据。【方法】在不考虑上游梯级水库联合调度和预见期预泄的基准情景下，构建并优化三峡库区一维非恒定流水动力模型，采用分段库容匹配和未控区间流量反演技术提高河道型库区沿程水位过程的模拟精度。选取1954、1966、1981、1982、1998、2012和2020年典型洪水，采用同频率放大法构建1%、0.1%和0.01%频率设计洪水，分析不同起调水位和分级下泄条件下坝前最高调洪水位及超标准洪水变化。【结果】优化模型能够较好模拟三峡库区沿程水位过程，各代表站水位模拟的平均绝对误差和均方根误差分别为0.03～0.35 m和0.03～0.49 m。当起调水位不超过155 m时，多数典型洪水条件下坝前最高调洪水位和累计出库洪量随起调水位的变化总体较小；当起调水位超过155 m后，剩余有效防洪库容进一步减小，坝前最高调洪水位及高流量出库响应对起调水位的敏感性明显增强。在起调水位一定时，提高设定下泄能力总体上能够降低坝前最高调洪水位；对于0.1%和0.01%频率洪水，较高的下泄上限可能增加高流量出库的持续时间或累计洪量。【结论】在本文模型结构、设计洪水、调度规则及边界条件下，155 m可作为三峡工程自身防洪调节能力变化的偏保守参考边界。145～155 m起调区间内工程调洪响应相对稳定并保留较大的防洪调节裕度，但155 m不应理解为汛期固定运行水位。研究结果可为后续结合实时洪水预报、梯级联合调度和预见期预泄开展动态汛期运行水位控制与洪水资源利用研究提供基础。
Abstract：[Objective] Against the background of increasingly intense extreme rainfall， increasingly complex flood encounters， and growing demand for refined water resource utilization， the potential of the reservoir for flood control and beneficial use is explored， and the key threshold of the flood-season operating water level constrained by the intrinsic flood-regulation capacity of the Three Gorges Project is identified， thereby providing a basis for dynamic water-level control and flood-resource utilization. [Methods] Under a baseline scenario excluding joint operation with upstream cascade reservoirs and forecast-based pre-release， a one-dimensional unsteady-flow hydrodynamic model of the Three Gorges Reservoir area was developed and optimized. Segmented storage-capacity matching and inversion of uncontrolled interval inflow were introduced to improve the simulation accuracy of longitudinal water-level processes in this riverine reservoir. Typical flood events in 1954， 1966， 1981， 1982， 1998， 2012， and 2020 were selected， and design floods with exceedance probabilities of 1%， 0.1%， and 0.01% were generated using the equal-frequency amplification method. The maximum regulated water level at the dam front and excess flood volumewere analyzed under different initial operating water levels and staged release conditions. [Results] The optimized model satisfactorily reproduced the longitudinal water-level processes in the reservoir area. The mean absolute errors and root mean square errors at the representative stations ranged from 0.03 to 0.35 m and from 0.03 to 0.49 m， respectively. When the initial operating water level did not exceed 155 m， the maximum regulated water level and cumulative outflow volume varied only slightly with the initial level under most typical flood conditions. Once the initial operating water level exceeded 155 m， the remaining effective flood-control storage decreased further， and both the maximum regulated water level and high-discharge outflow response became more sensitive to further increases in the initial level. For a fixed initial operating water level， increasing the prescribed release limit generally reduced the maximum regulated water level. For the 0.1% and 0.01% design floods， however， a higher release limit could increase the duration or cumulative volume of high-discharge operation. [Conclusion] Under the model structure， design-flood scenarios， operation rules， and boundary conditions adopted in this study， 155 m can be regarded as a conservative reference boundary for changes in the intrinsic flood-regulation capacity of the Three Gorges Project. The flood-regulation response remains relatively stable and a comparatively large regulation margin is retained when the initial operating water level ranges from 145 to 155 m. However， 155 m should not be interpreted as a fixed flood-season operating water level. The findings provide a basis for future studies on dynamic flood-season water-level control and flood-resource utilization incorporating real-time flood forecasts， coordinated cascade operation， and forecast-based pre-release.
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基本信息:
中图分类号:TV697.13
引用信息:
[1]翟俨伟,蒋定国,张成潇,等.基于工程自身防洪调节能力边界的河道型水库汛期运行水位关键阈值识别：以三峡水库为例(英文)[J].水利水电技术(中英文)().
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金项目（52109081）; 中国长江三峡集团有限公司科研项目（WWKY-2021-0439）; 国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3203900)
2026-09-10
2026-09-10
2026-09-10