水利水电技术（中英文）

近几十年来,我国城市路面频繁发生塌陷事故,造成了不同程度的危害。为揭示中国城市路面塌陷的发生规律及影响因素,基于2014—2018年我国城市路面塌陷事件的新闻报道数据,采用时空统计、核密度分析等方法从发生时间和空间分布集聚特征等方面探索其规律性,并依据词频统计、相关及回归分析来探究发生的主要原因和影响因素。结果表明:在时间上,城市路面塌陷频发于夏季尤其集中于7—8月;在空间上,主要分布于东部大中城市尤其是各省会城市和西部湿陷性黄土区的大中城市,集中在华北平原、长江三角洲、珠江三角洲和汾渭盆地。地下管道破损、降雨和施工是致塌陷频发最主要的直接原因,在各种原因中分别占到了42%、30%和12%。路面塌陷次数与城市的地区生产总值、城区人口密度、地下水用水量和地面沉降易发程度存在相关关系,且由多个因素共同作用,其中频繁的经济活动和密集的人口影响更大。研究成果以期为今后城市地质灾害和路面塌陷相关研究以及相关城市解决塌陷问题、降低塌陷风险、规避塌陷发生提供参考。

In recent decades, the accidents of urban road collapse frequently occur in China, thus cause different degrees of hazards. In order to reveal the occurrence law and the impacting factors of the road collapse, its regularity is explored in the aspects of occurrence time, spatial distribution clustering characteristics, etc. through the methods of spatio-temporal statistics, nuclear density analysis, etc. in accordance with the data from the news report on the events of urban road collapse in China from 2014 to 2018, and then the main causations and impacting factors of the occurrence of the collapse are studied by means of word frequency count, correlation and regression analyses. The result shows that temporally, the urban road collapses frequently occur in summer and especially concentrate in the period of July-August, while spatially, the collapse occurrences are mainly distributed in the large-mid sized cities within the East China, especially all the provincial capitals therein as well as the large-mid sized cities in the collapsible loess region of the West China; which are concentrated in the North China Plain, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and Fen-Wei Basin. The damage of underground pipeline, rainfall and construction are the immediate causes of the frequent collapses with the proportions of 42%, 30% and 12% respectively. The number of the road collapse is correlative to urban regional GDP, urban population density, groundwater consumption and prone degree of land subsidence and is affected by several factors, in which the impacts from frequent economic activities and dense population are even greater. The study results are expected to provide references for the relevant studies of the urban geological disasters and solving the problems of road collapse for the related cities as well as reducing the risk of the collapse and avoiding the occurrence of the collapse.