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为了探究阿克苏河径流对气候变化和人类活动的响应情况,采用Mann-Kendall、Pettit检验法结合距平序列变化分析水文、气象要素的变化趋势和突变情况,基于弹性系数法定量评估气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的贡献率,并探究了冰川积雪消融对径流量的影响。在此基础上,根据突变点检验结果,将历史长序列划分为基线期(1956—1976年)、改变期I (1977—1993年)及改变期II (1994—2018年),定量研究了阿克苏河径流变化的归因。结果表明:(1)阿克苏河流域1956—2018年的年平均降雨和径流呈现出显著的上升趋势,降雪量呈现不显著的上升趋势,而潜在蒸散发呈现出递减趋势;(2)径流变化对降雨和潜在蒸散发变化的敏感性程度自基线期到改变期II呈显著的增加趋势;(3)径流变化对降雨变化的响应更敏感,降雨的增加与潜在蒸散发的减少都会导致流域径流量的增加;变暖引起的积雪与冰川的加速消融都将显著地促进径流量的增加;(4)自1977—2018年,气候变化使径流量增加的影响(59%)明显大于人类活动使径流减少的影响(-41%),气候变化是阿克苏河径流量变化的主导原因。
Abstract：To explore the attributions of climate change and human activities to runoff in the Aksu River, multiple statistical analysis methods such as Mann-Kendall. Pettit test and anomalous sequence cherges are used to analyze the changing trends and abrupt changes of hydrological and meteorological elements. The historical sequence is characterized by three periods: the baseline period(1956—1976), the change period I(1977—1993), and the change period II(1994—2018) according to the abrupt analysis. The relative contributions of climate change and human activities to runoff variations are quantitatively evaluated by the climate elasticity method, and the impact of glacier-snow melting on runoff is explored. Results show that the rainfall and runoff in the Aksu River Basin from 1956 to 2018 show significant upward trends, the snowfall shows an insignificant upward trend, and the potential evapotranspiration shows a decreasing trend. The increase in rainfall and the decrease in potential evapotranspiration both promote runoff increase in the basin, and runoff is most sensitive to rainfall changes. The sensitivity of runoff to rainfall and potential evapotranspiration shows obvious increases from the baseline period to the change period II. Besides, runoff is promoted significantly by the increasing glacier-snow melting under warming environment. Climate change(59%) contributes more to the average runoff change than human activities(-41%), indicating climate change is the main factor increasing runoff in the Aksu River.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2021.09.004
中图分类号:P333.1
引用信息:
[1]李虹彬,王卫光,傅健宇.基于弹性系数法的阿克苏河径流归因分析[J],2021,52(09):40-47.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2021.09.004.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金(51979071);; 国家级大学生创新训练项目(202010294009)