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【目的】通过检索相似台风来获取历史灾情是灾害综合研判和损失评估中的重要手段，而台风致灾不仅与路径有关，亦与致灾强度、持续时间等环境场决定的要素密切相关。为了发展一套面向灾害应对的致灾相似台风解决方案，【方法】首先，以6—11月为台风季节、以2014—2015年、1981—2015年台风为目标和历史样本、以500 hPa高度场为环境场指标，选取相似离度表征路径相似度、最优相似系数表征环境场相似度并将两者进行标准化及加权设计，建立了一套致灾相似台风检索模型；其次，基于上述模型，通过赋权试验，考察了台风海陆位置差异、强度差异对环境场权重赋值的影响；最后，基于1949—2021年数据，选取典型案例蔷琵(1525)、桑美(0608)、利奇马(1909)进行方法释用。【结果】结果显示：(1)对西北太平洋台风而言，当环境场权重区间在[0.3, 0.8]时距离偏差相对较小，权重区间在[0.2, 0.7]时方向偏差相对较小，两者的最优权重均在0.5前后取得；(2)对影响我国的台风而言，当环境场赋值区间在[0.5, 0.9]时，距离偏差和方向偏差相对较小，最优权重赋值在0.6前后；(3)对影响我国的不同强度台风而言，当环境场取最优权重时，台风、强台风改善敏感度最高。【结论】结果表明：引入环境场对判定致灾相似台风有重要作用，环境场最优权重的选取与台风所处位置、台风强度有关；引入环境场的致灾相似台风检索模型对转折路径有一定的预判作用，对台风灾情的分布、量级等预判工作具有指导意义。
Abstract：[Objective] Similar typhoon retrieval method can provide important support for disaster risk loss assessment and emergency decision. The typhoon-induced disaster is closely related not only to the track, but also to the factors determined by the environmental field such as the intensity and the duration of the typhoon. In order to develop a set of similar typhoon model for similar disasters, [Methods]firstly, the typhoon season is defined as June to November, the typhoons from 2014 to 2015 and 1981 to 2015 are selected as the target samples and the retrieval samples respectively. The 500-hPa geopotential height field is selected to represent the environmental field. The similarity deviation and the optimal similarity coefficient is selected to represent the track and environmental field similarity, respectively. The two indexes are standardized and weighted to establish the similar typhoon retrieval model. Secondly, based on the retrieval model, the influence of regional and intensity differences on the weight of environmental field is investigated through the weighting test. Finally, typical case analysis and disaster pre-judgment and interpretation are carried out for typhoon Champi(1525), Saomai(0608) and Lekima(1909) based on the data from 1949 to 2021. [Results] The results show that:(1) For typhoons in the Northwest Pacific, the distance deviation is relatively small when the weight range of the environmental field is [0.3, 0.8], and the direction deviation is relatively small when the weight range is [0.2, 0.7]. The optimal weights of both are around 0.5.(2) For typhoons affecting China, when the weight range of the environmental field is [0.5, 0.9], the distance deviation and direction deviation are relatively small, and the optimal weight is around 0.6.(3) For typhoons of different intensities that affecting China, when the environmental field takes the optimal weight, the improvement of TYs(Typhoons), STYs(Severe Typhoons) is the highest. [Conclusion] The introduction of the environmental field plays an important role in determining the similar typhoon-induced disasters. The selection of the optimal weight of the environmental field is related to the location and intensity of the typhoon. This similar typhoon retrieval model has a certain role in the prediction of the turning track, and has a guiding significance for the prediction of the distribution and magnitude of typhoon-induced disasters.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2023.07.002
中图分类号:P429
引用信息:
[1]李颖,金茹,许娈,等.基于路径与环境场最优赋权的致灾相似台风检索方法研究[J],2023,54(07):14-26.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2023.07.002.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金项目(42205006);; 浙江省基础公益研究计划项目(LGF21D010001,LY21D050001);; 福建省灾害天气重点实验室开放课题(2020KFKT05);; 浙江省气象局科技计划项目(2021YB10,2021QN09)