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【目的】为揭示气温和降水变化信号对我国中部地区的响应特征，科学配置水资源，指导防汛抗旱工作，【方法】基于中部地区104个气象站点1961—2020年的逐月气温和降水数据，利用线性回归、累计距平、Mann-Kendall突变检验、Morlet小波分析、反距离权重插值(IDW)等方法对中部地区气温和降水的时空变化特征进行了探究。【结果】结果表明：(1)1961—2020年中部地区年均温呈现显著上升趋势，上升速率为0.23℃/10 a,与全球气温变化一致。冬季增温幅度最大，为0.48℃/10 a。1991—2000年气温发生了从低温向高温的突变。年降水量呈现波动性上升趋势，上升速率为1.24 mm/10 a。秋季降水量增幅最大为1.74 mm/10 a,冬季增幅最小，为0.78 mm/10 a,春季降水量呈减少趋势，减少幅度为0.58 mm/10 a。降水量年代际分布不均，1991—2000年、2011—2020年降水量高于多年平均降水量，且各年代均发生不同程度的突变。(2)在空间分布上，中部地区年均温总体上呈现出由南向北递增，山西省气温上升幅度最大，增幅最小为湖南省。年降水量地区分布不均，且呈现由西北向东南递增趋势。年降水量增幅最大在江西、安徽等地，山西、河南等地降水量趋于减少。(3)由Morlet小波分析表明，年均温存在由32 a强周期和7 a、15 a的小尺度变化周期，年降水量存在32 a强周期和10 a、15 a的小尺度变化周期。【结论】总体来说，我国中部地区气候呈现出增温增湿态势。
Abstract：[Objective]To reveal the response characteristics of temperature and precipitation change signals to the central region of China, to allocate water resources scientifically, and to guide the work of flood and drought management.[Methods]Based on the month-by-month temperature and precipitation data of 104 meteorological stations in the central region from 1961 to 2020, the spatial and temporal characteristics of temperature and precipitation in the central region are explored using linear regression, cumulative distance level, Mann-Kendall mutation test, Morlet wavelet analysis, and inverse distance weight interpolation(IDW).[Results]The result show that:(1) The annual mean temperature in the central region shows a significant upward trend from 1961 to 2020, with an increase rate of 0.23 ℃/10 a, which is consistent with the global temperature change. The greatest warming in winter is 0.48 ℃/10 a. A sudden change from low to high temperature occurred from 1991 to 2000. The annual precipitation shows a fluctuating upward trend with an increase rate of 1.24 mm/10 a. The maximum increase in precipitation is 1.74 mm/10 a in autumn, the minimum increase is 0.78 mm/10 a in winter, and the decrease in precipitation in spring is 0.58 mm/10 a. The interdecadal distribution of precipitation is uneven, with the precipitation in 1991—2000, 2011—2020 being higher than the multi-year average. The inter-decade distribution of precipitation is uneven, with precipitation during 1991—2000, 2011, 2020, and 2020 being higher than the multi-year average precipitation, and different degrees of abrupt changes occurring in each decade.(2) In terms of spatial distribution, the annual average temperature in the central region generally shows an increase from south to north, with the largest increase in Shanxi Province and the smallest increase in Hunan Province. The regional distribution of annual precipitation is uneven and shows an increasing trend from northwest to southeast. The largest increase in annual precipitation is in Jiangxi and Anhui, and the precipitation tends to decrease in Shanxi and Henan.(3) The Morlet wavelet analysis shows that the annual mean temperature exists in a strong cycle of 32 a and a small-scale variation cycle of 7 a and 15 a, and the annual precipitation exists in a strong cycle of 32 a and a small-scale variation cycle of 10 a and 15 a.[Conclusion]In general, the climate of central China shows a warming and humidifying trend.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2023.06.007
中图分类号:P467
引用信息:
[1]程书波,李冲,岳颖,等.1961—2020年我国中部地区气温和降水时空变化特征[J],2023,54(06):75-86.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2023.06.007.
基金信息:
国家社会科学基金项目(20BJY043);; 国家自然科学基金面上项目(41771393)