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为优化配置石羊河流域水资源利用,揭示承载力变化状况,提高流域水资源承载能力,在综合考虑自然条件、水资源、社会经济和生态环境等对水资源承载力影响的基础上,筛选28个评价指标,构建石羊河流域水资源承载力评价体系;采用博弈论赋权法计算水资源承载力指标权重,利用正态云模型度量承载力指标的隶属度,提出基于博弈论和云模型的水资源承载力评价模型,并应用于石羊河流域水资源承载力评价中。研究结果表明:地下水资源量、年均水资源总量、耕地灌溉率和地下水开采量这四个指标对于石羊河流域水资源承载力有着重要影响;石羊河流域2012—2018年水资源承载力从Ⅱ级过渡到Ⅲ级,从评价结果可以看出石羊河流域水资源承载力状况逐年向好,与可变集模型评价结果一致。上述结果表明提出的模型具有合理性与可靠性,为流域水资源承载力评价提供了一种新的方法,亦可为石羊河流域水资源保护和利用提供科学决策依据。
Abstract：In order to optimize the utilization of water resources in Shiyang River Basin, reveal the changing status of carrying capacity and improve the carrying capacity of water resources in the basin, an evaluation system for the water resources carrying capacity of Shiyang River Basin is constructed with 28 evaluation indicators screened by comprehensively weighing up the influence of natural conditions, water resources, social economy, and ecological environment on the carrying capacity of water resources. In addition, with the weighting method of game theory used to calculate the weight of water resources carrying capacity index and the normal cloud model employed to measure the membership degree of carrying capacity index, the evaluation model of water resources carrying capacity based on game theory and cloud model is proposed and applied to evaluate the resource carrying capacity of Shiyang River Basin. The research results show that the four indicators, namely the amount of groundwater resources, total annual water resources, arable land irrigation rate and groundwater exploitation, have an important influence on the water resources carrying capacity of Shiyang River Basin. From 2012 to 2018, the water resources carrying capacity of Shiyang River Basin has transitioned from Grade Ⅱ to Grade ⅢⅡ, which represents that the situation of water resources carrying capacity in Shiyang River Basin has got better year by year and it is consistent with the evaluation results of the variable set model. All the above shows the rationality and reliability of our proposed model, providing a novel approach for evaluating the water resources carrying capacity of the river basin as well as a scientific decision-making basis for the protection and utilization of water resources in Shiyang River Basin.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2021.10.004
中图分类号:TV213.4
引用信息:
[1]王文川,杨柳,郑野,等.基于博弈论和云模型的石羊河流域水资源承载力评价研究[J],2021,52(10):35-45.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2021.10.004.
基金信息:
河南省高校科技创新团队(18IRTSTHN009);; 河南省重点研发与推广专项(202102310259);; 国家自然科学基金项目(51509088,51709108)