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为了更精确地反映高温灾害对人口、社会经济、农业的影响程度，基于多源遥感数据、地理信息数据、统计年鉴数据反演2020年长三角地区高温承灾体空间分布情况，结合1971—2020年长三角地区221个气象站逐日温度数据，从致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体、防灾减灾能力四个方面构建高温灾害风险评估模型。结果表明：(1)人居指数模型实现人口空间化分布与统计数据之间的误差为25.42%,多元线性回归模型实现GDP、农业用地密度空间化分布与统计数据之间的误差分别为26.70%、24.58%,经线性纠正后的结果能精确反映高温灾害承灾体空间分布情况；(2)基于高温的影响因素分析显示高温灾害发生在纬度低，远离水系、人口稠密的平原地带，利用指标权重分析得到纬度和海拔高度对高温灾害的影响最大，其次是人口密度和经济发展程度；(3)高温灾害风险图表明长三角地区高温风险总体呈现北低南高，内陆高于沿海的分布态势，高风险和次高风险主要分布于浙江省大部分地区，安徽西北、东南部，上海北部；中等风险分布于安徽省中部，苏南地区；低风险和次低风险分布于苏中、苏北、浙江沿海城市。
Abstract：In order to more accurately reflect the degree of the impact from high temperature disaster on population, social economy and agriculture, the spatial distribution of the high temperature disaster-affected bodies in the Yangtze River Delta region in 2020 is inverted herein based on multi-source remote sensing data, geographic information data and statistical yearbook data, and then a risk assessment model of high temperature disaster is built up from four aspects, i.e. disaster-inducing factors, disaster-pregnant environment, disaster-affected bodies and disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities, in combination with the daily temperature data from 1971 to 2020 of 221 meteorological stations in the Yangtze River Delta region. The results show that(1) the error between the spatial distribution of population realized by the Habitat Index model and the statistical data is 25.42 %. The errors between the spatial distribution of GDP, the density of agricultural land realized by the multiple linear regression model and the statistical data are 26.70 % and 24.58 % respectively, from which the linearly corrected results can accurately reflect the spatial distribution of the disaster-affected bodies of high temperature disasters;(2) the influencing factors of high temperature-based analysis shows that high temperature disasters occur in the plain zones of low latitude far away from water systems with dense population, while it is obtained from the relevant index weight analysis that the influences from latitude and altitude on the high temperature disaster are the largest and then the influences from population density and the economic development;(3) the high temperature disaster risk map shows that the high temperature disaster risk in the Yangtze River Delta region generally exhibits a distribution situation of low in the north and high in the south and higher in the inland than the coastal region, thus the high risk and sub-high risk are mainly distributed in most parts of Zhejiang Province, the northwest and southeast of Anhui and the north of Shanghai, while the medium risk is distributed in the central Anhui Province, the south of Jiangsu and the low risk and sub-low risk are distributed in the coastal cities of the central Jiangsu, northern Jiangsu and Zhejiang.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2022.09.001
中图分类号:P423
引用信息:
[1]王金虎,王宇豪,陈江,等.基于承灾体空间化的高温灾害风险评估研究：以中国长三角为例[J],2022,53(09):1-12.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2022.09.001.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金项目(41905026);; 江苏省自然科学基金资助项目(BK20170945);; 南京信息工程大学人才启动基金资助项目(2016r028);; 江苏省333工程高层次人才培养资助(第三层次)