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【目的】为保障祁连山生态安全，亟需开展西北地区内陆河流域突发水污染科学评价。【方法】以黑河流域张掖段为例，基于PSR模型构建了突发水污染安全综合评价体系，结合2016—2020年黑河流域张掖段历史数据，采用G1-GRA-物元可拓模型对研究区域突发水污染安全等级进行评价，并将其评价结果与TOPSIS评价法结果进行对比分析。【结果】结果显示：黑河流域张掖段突发水污染2016年风险等级为Ⅱ级，2017—2020年风险等级均为Ⅲ级，整体呈现缓慢下降并趋于平稳的态势；未来黑河流域突发水污染防治的重点应放在沿河危险企业数(C2)、入河污水总量(C5)、农药施用量(C7)、家禽污染负荷(C8)、森林覆盖率(C11)等5项指标；G1-GRA-物元可拓评价模型与TOPSIS评价模型的评价结果相符度为80%,验证了该方法在突发水污染安全评价上的可行性。【结论】结果表明：G1-GRA-物元可拓评价模型能有效评定研究区域整体和各单项指标突发水污染风险等级，研究成果为西北地区内陆河流域的突发水污染风险防控工作提供了参考依据，完善了内陆河流域突发水污染风险评价体系。
Abstract：[Objective]In order to guarantee the ecological security of Qilian Mountains, the scientific assessment of sudden water pollution in northwest Chinese inland river basins was carried out.[Methods] Taking Zhangye Section of Heihe River Basin as an example, we carried out a comprehensive evaluation system for the safety of sudden water pollution based on PSR model. In analyzing the historical data of Zhangye Section of Heihe River Basin from 2016 to 2020, the G1-GRA-extension matter-element model was taken advantage to evaluate the safety level of sudden water pollution in the study region. The results were compared with those of TOPSIS evaluation method.[Results]There was a level Ⅱ risk of sudden water pollution in the Zhangye Section of the Heihe River Basin in 2016 and a level Ⅲ risk in 2017—2020, which indicates a gradual and steady downward trend.The focus of the prevention and control of sudden water pollution in Heihe River Basin should be taken on the quantity of dangerous enterprises along the river(C2), the total sewage into the river(C5), the amount of pesticide application(C7), the poultry pollution load(C8), and the forest coverage rate(C11) in the future. The agreement degree between G1-GRA-extension matter-element model and TOPSIS model is 80%, which verifies the feasibility of this method in the safety evaluation of sudden water pollution.[Conclusion]The G1-GRA-extension matter-element model can effectively evaluate the risk level of sudden water pollution as the whole and in individual indicators of the study region. The study′s findings improve the method for assessing the danger of unexpected water pollution in interior river basins and serve as a foundation for risk prevention and control of sudden water pollution in northwest China.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2023.05.012
中图分类号:X820.4;X52
引用信息:
[1]周一,靳春玲,贡力,等.内陆河流域突发水污染安全评价：以黑河流域张掖段为例[J],2023,54(05):126-135.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2023.05.012.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金项目(72261024,51969011);; 甘肃省科技计划资助(20JR10RA274)
2022-11-03
2022
2022-12-11
2023-02-09
2023
1