| 1,157 | 21 | 249 |
| 下载次数 | 被引频次 | 阅读次数 |
【目的】气候变化和人类活动导致径流在年际、年内均发生变化，为分析历史时期长江流域径流变化规律，并对于未来时期长江流域径流进行预估，【方法】利用统计方法，分析1950—2019年以来长江干流屏山、朱沱、寸滩、宜昌、汉口、大通等6个典型水文站年径流、季节径流、极端径流的变化；采用分布式水文模型VIC(Variable Infiltration Capacity)对于《巴黎协定》增温目标下未来长江流域格网尺度的径流进行模拟，并分析年径流、季节径流、极端径流的变化。【结果】结果显示：(1)1950—2019年期间，长江干流6个典型水文站的年均流量均呈下降趋势。各水文站的流量整体呈丰水期(夏季、秋季)下降与枯水期(春季、冬季)上升的趋势。枯水极值总体呈现上升趋势，丰水极值在1980 s或1990 s达到峰值后下降。(2)在增温1.5℃情景下，长江流域平均年径流量、各季节径流量、丰水极值相对于基准时期总体呈现上升趋势，部分地区枯水极值相对于基准时期呈现下降趋势；在增温2.0℃情景下，长江流域平均年径流量、春季径流量、夏季径流量、丰水极值相对于基准时期总体呈现上升趋势，而秋季径流量、冬季径流量、枯水极值相对于基准时期总体呈现下降趋势。【结论】结果表明：相对于增温1.5℃情景，在增温2.0℃情景下，长江流域平均年径流量、各季节径流量、枯水极值均减少，丰水极值在长江上游地区下降明显，流域内有更多的地区将同时遭受干旱和洪水灾害的影响，长江流域将面临更为严峻的水资源问题。
Abstract：[Objective]Climate change and human activities have led to changes in the inter-annual and intra-annual runoff. In order to analyze the characteristic of runoff change in the Yangtze River basin in the past, and to estimate changes in runoff in the Yangtze River basin in the future, [Methods]changes in annual runoff, seasonal runoff and extreme runoff of six typical hydrological stations on the main streams of the Yangtze River, including Pingshan, Zhutuo, Cuntan, Yichang, Hankou and Datong, from 1950 to 2019 are analyzed through statistical methods. The distributed hydrological model VIC(Variable Infiltration Capacity) is used to simulate the grid-scale runoff in the Yangtze River basin in the future under the warming target stipulated by the Paris Agreement, and changes in annual runoff, seasonal runoff, and extreme runoff are analyzed based on the simulation results. [Results]The results show that:(1) From 1950 to 2019, the annual discharge of the six typical hydrological stations on the main streams of the Yangtze River decreased. Generally, discharge of each hydrological station decreased in the wet seasons(summer and autumn) and increased in the dry seasons(spring and winter). Extreme low runoff of each hydrological station increased, and extreme high runoff decreased since 1980 s or 1990 s after reaching its peak;(2) Under the 1.5 ℃ warming scenario, annual runoff, seasonal runoff, extreme high runoff are projected to increase generally, and extreme low runoff are projected to decrease in parts of the Yangtze River basin, relative to the baseline period. Under the 2.0 ℃ warming scenario, annual runoff, spring runoff, summer runoff and extreme high runoff are projected to increase generally, and autumn runoff, winter runoff and extreme low runoff are projected to decrease generally in the Yangtze River basin, relative to the baseline period. [Conclusion]In general, compared with the 1.5 ℃ warming scenario, under the 2.0 ℃ warming scenario, annual runoff, seasonal runoff, and extreme low runoff are projected to decrease in the Yangtze River basin, extreme high runoff is projected to decrease significantly in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Basin, more droughts and floods are projected to happen concurrently. These mean that when global warming target increases from 1.5 ℃ to 2.0 ℃, the Yangtze River basin will face more severe water resources problems.
[1] 翟盘茂.全球变暖背景下的气候服务[J].气象，2011,37(3):257-262.ZHAI P.Climate service under climate warming background [J].Meteorological Monthly,2011,37(3):257-262.
[2] 中国气象局气候变化中心.中国气候变化蓝皮书(2021)[M].北京：科学出版社，2021.Climate Change Center of China Meteorological Administration.Blue Book on Climate Change in China 2021[M].Beijing:SCIENCE PRESS,2021.
[3] 张建云，王国庆.河川径流变化及归因定量识别[M].北京：科学出版社，2014.ZHANG J,WANG G.Variation of river runoff and quantitative attribution identification[M].Beijing:Science Press,2014.
[4] 郭文献，赵瑞超，王鸿翔，等.近50 年来长江上游泥沙情势变异及影响因素分析[J].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2021,42(5):82-87.GUO W,ZHAO R,WANG H,et al.Analysis of sediment variability and influencing factors in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River in the past 50 years[J].Journal of North China university of water resources and electric power (natural science edition),2021,42(5):82-87.
[5] 彭俊，凌敏，俞珊妮，等.长江流域径流量变化过程及其对ENSO和PDO 的响应[J].地理科学，2022,42(3):515-526.PENG J,LING M,YU S,et al.Variation process of water discharge and its response to ENSO and PDO in the Yangtze River Basin[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2022,42(3):515-526.
[6] 肖紫薇，石朋，瞿思敏，等.长江流域径流演变规律研究[J].三峡大学学报(自然科学版),2016,38(6):1-6.XIAO Z,SHI P,QU S,et al.Analysis of change characteristics of runoff in Yangtze River Basin[J].Journal of China Three Gorges University (Natural Sciences),2016,38(6):1-6.
[7] 许全喜，童辉.近50年来长江水沙变化规律研究[J].水文，2012,32(5):38-47.XU Q,TONG H.Characteristics of flow and sediment change in Yangtze River in recent 50 years[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2012,32(5):38-47.
[8] HUNTINGTON T G.Evidence for intensification of the global water cycle:Review and synthesis[J].Journal of Hydrology,2006,319(1-4):83-95.
[9] 徐宗学，周祖昊，姜瑶，等.西南河流源区径流量变化规律及其未来演变趋势[J/OL].水科学进展：1-15[2022-06-16].XU Z,ZHOU Z,JIANG Y,et al.Variation laws and future evolution trends of runoff in the headwaters region of Southwestern rivers[J/OL].Advances in Water Science:1-15[2022-06-16].
[10] 张建云，王国庆.气候变化对水文水资源的影响[M].北京：科学出版社，2007.ZHANG J,WANG G.Impact of climate change on hydrology and water resources[M].Beijing:Science Press,2007.
[11] BOOKER D J,WOODS R A.Comparing and combining physically-based and empirically-based approaches for estimating the hydrology of ungauged catchments[J].Journal of Hydrology,2014,508:227-239.
[12] 魏洁，畅建霞，陈磊.基于VIC模型的黄河上游未来径流变化分析[J].水力发电学报，2016,35(5):65-74.WEI J,CHANG J,CHEN L.Runoff change in upper reach of Yellow River under future climate change based on VIC model[J].Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering,2016,35(5):65-74.
[13] LENG G,TANG Q,HUANG M,et al.Projected changes in mean and interannual variability of surface water over continental China[J].Science China-Earth Sciences,2015,58 (5):739-754.
[14] MARKUS A S,CANNON A J.Statistical emulation of streamflow projections from a distributed hydrological model:Application to CMIP3 and CMIP5 climate projections for British Columbia,Canada[J].Water Resources Research,2014,50:8907-8926.
[15] 郑巍斐，杨肖丽，程雪蓉，等.基于CMIP5和VIC模型的长江上游主要水文过程变化趋势预测[J].水文，2018,38(6):48-53.ZHENG W,YANG X,CHENG X,et al.Prediction of major water cycle change over upper Yangtze River based on CMIP5 and VIC Model[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2018,38(6):48-53.
[16] 徐文馨，陈杰，顾磊，等.长江流域径流对全球升温1.5℃与2.0℃的响应[J].气候变化研究进展，2020,16(6):690-705.XU W,CHEN J,GU L,et al.Runoff response to 1.5 ℃ and 2.0 ℃ global warming for the Yangtze River Basin[J].Climate Change Research,2020,16(6):690-705.
[17] IPCC.Summary for Policymakers.In:Global warming of 1.5℃.An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5℃ above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways,in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change,sustainable development,and efforts to eradicate poverty[R].Geneva,Switzerland:World Meteorological Organization,2018.
[18] WEEDON G P,GOMES S,VITERBO P,et al.Creation of the WATCH forcing data and its use to assess global and regional reference crop evaporation over land during the twentieth century[J].Journal of Hydrometeorology,2011,12(5):823-848.
[19] MITCHELL D,ACHUTARAO K,ALLEN M,et al.Half a degree additional warming,prognosis and projected impacts (HAPPI):Background and experimental design[J].Geoscientific Model Development,2017,10(2):571-583.
[20] ZHAI R,TAO F,LALL U,et al.Larger drought and flood hazards and adverse impacts on population and economic productivity under 2.0 than 1.5 ℃ warming[J].Earth′s Future,2020,8 (7):e2019EF001398.
[21] HANSEN M C,DEFRIES R S,TOWNSHEND J R G,et al.Global land cover classification at 1 km spatial resolution using a classification tree approach[J].International Journal of Remote Sensing,2000,21(6-7):1331-1364.
[22] NIJSSEN B,SCHNUR R,LETTENMAIER D P.Global retrospective estimation of soil moisture using the variable infiltration capacity land surface model,1980—1993[J].Journal of Climate,2001,14(8):1790-1808.
[23] NIJSSEN B,O′DONNELL G M,LETTENMAIER D P,et al.Predicting the discharge of global rivers [J].Journal of Climate,2001,14(15):3307-3323.
[24] LIANG X,LETTENMAIER D P,WOOD E F,et al.A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for general circulation models[J].Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres,1994,99(D7):14415-14428.
[25] LIANG X,WOOD E F,LETTENMAIER D P.Surface soil moisture parameterization of the VIC-2L model:Evaluation and modification[J].Global and Planetary Change,1996,13(1-4):195-206.
[26] DUAN Q,GUPTA V K,SOROOSHIAN S.Shuffled complex evolution approach for effective and efficient global minimization[J].Journal of Optimization Theory and Applications,1993,76(3):501-521.
[27] DUAN Q,SOROOSHIAN S,GUPTA V K.Optimal use of the SCE-UA global optimization method for calibrating watershed models[J].Journal of Hydrology,1994,158(3-4):265-284.
[28] GUPTA H V,KLING H,YILMAZ K K,et al.Decomposition of the mean squared error and NSE performance criteria:Implications for improving hydrological modelling[J].Journal of Hydrology,2009,377(1-2):80-91.
[29] ZHAI R,TAO F,CHEN Y,et al.Future water security in the major basins of China under the 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ global warming scenarios[J].Science of the Total Environment,2022,849:157928.
[30] ASADIEH B,KRAKAUER N Y.Global change in streamflow extremes under climate change over the 21st century[J].Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2017,21(11):5863-5874.
[31] LIU J,ZHANG Q,SINGH V P,et al.Contribution of multiple climatic variables and human activities to streamflow changes across China[J].Journal of Hydrology,2017,545:145-162.
[32] YANG S L,XU K H,MILLIMAN J D,et al.Decline of Yangtze River water and sediment discharge:Impact from natural and anthropogenic changes[J].Scientific Reports,2015,5:1-14.
[33] HUANG Z,YANG H,YANG D.Dominant climatic factors driving annual runoff changes at the catchment scale across China[J].Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2016,20(7):2573-2587.
[34] LIU D,MISHRA A K,ZHANG K.Runoff sensitivity over Asia:Role of climate variables and initial soil conditions[J].Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres,2017,122(4):2218-2238.
[35] HOU A,NI G,YANG H,et al.Numerical analysis on the contribution of urbanization to wind stilling:An example over the greater Beijing metropolitan area[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology,2013,52(5):1105-1115.
[36] VAUTARD R,CATTIAUX J,YIOU P,et al.Northern hemisphere atmospheric stilling partly attributed to an increase in surface roughness[J].Nature Geoscience,2010,3(11):756-761.
[37] SHE D,XIA J,SHAO Q,et al.Advanced investigation on the change in the streamflow into the water source of the middle route of China′s water diversion project[J].Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmospheres,2017,122(13):6950-6961.
[38] 段唯鑫，郭生练，王俊.长江上游大型水库群对宜昌站水文情势影响分析[J].长江流域资源与环境，2016,25(1):120-130.DUAN W,GUO S,WANG J.Impact of upper Yangtze River large-scale cascade reservoirs on flow regime at Yichang station[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2016,25(1):120-130.
[39] 田慧.长江水沙演变及其对气候变化和人类活动的响应[D].武汉：三峡大学，2019.TIAN H.Water and sediment evolution of the Yangtze River and its response to climate change and human activities[D].Wuhan:China Three Gorges University,2019.
基本信息:
DOI：10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2023.06.008
中图分类号:P333.1
引用信息:
[1]翟然,刘志武,戴会超,等.长江流域径流历史演变特征及未来预估[J],2023,54(06):87-97.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2023.06.008.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金项目(U2040212,42201050);; 中国长江三峡集团有限公司科研项目(202103584,202003251)