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【目的】水资源承载力是区域经济社会可持续发展的重要参考因素。随着经济社会的快速发展，昆明市水资源严重匮乏且过度开发，水资源供需矛盾日益突出。因此，定量分析昆明市水资源承载力，可以为昆明合理优化配置水资源提供理论依据与参考。【方法】从水资源、生态环境、社会和经济4个子系统中选定20个评价指标构建水资源承载力综合评价体系，并采用矩估计法确定各个指标组合权重。通过建立TOPSIS-RSR模型对昆明市2008—2020年水资源承载力进行了合理分级、灵敏度分析及综合评价。【结果】结果表明：2008—2020年昆明市水资源承载力整体呈现上升趋势，贴近度从0.413提高到0.679,增长率为64.4%,承载力水平从一般水平提升到较好水平。影响昆明市水资源承载力的主要因素为水资源开发利用率、生态环境用水率、工业废水中COD排放量、森林覆盖率、人口自然增长率、人均GDP。在2009—2011年期间，昆明市水资源承载力受大旱影响有小幅波动的情况。对于其他子系统，除了水资源子系统较脆弱，受气候波动影响较大外，生态环境、社会和经济子系统承载力总体稳步增长。【结论】根据评价结果，昆明市水资源压力依然巨大，可通过优化升级产业结构，逐步淘汰高耗能、高耗水工业；优化配置水资源，保障水量、水质；加强生态文明建设等措施，提升昆明市水资源承载力，保障经济社会可持续发展。
Abstract：[Objective] Water resources carrying capacity is an important reference factor for regional economic and social sustainable development. With the rapid economic and social development, water resources in Kunming are seriously short and overexploited, thus the contradiction between both supply and demand of water resources becomes increasingly prominent. Therefore, the quantitative analysis of water resources carrying capacity in Kunming can provide the theoretical basis and reference for the reasonable allocation of water resources in Kunming. [Methods]From the four subsystems, i.e. water resources, ecological environment, society and economy, 20 evaluation indexes are selected to construct the comprehensive evaluation system of water resources carrying capacity, and then the weight of each index combination is determined with the moment estimation method. Through establishing TOPSIS-RSR model, the reasonable classification, sensitivity analysis and comprehensive evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in Kunming from 2008 to 2020 are carried out. [Results] The results show that the overall water resources carrying capacity of Kunming City exhibits an upward trend from 2008 to 2020 and the proximity is increased from 0.413 to 0.679 with an increase rate of 64.4%, and then the carrying capacity level is upgraded from common level to better level. The main factors affecting the water resources carrying capacity of Kunming are water resources development and utilization rate, ecological environment water use rate, COD discharge in industrial wastewater, forest coverage rate, natural population growth rate and GDP per capita. In the period of 2009—2011, Kunming water resources carrying capacity is slightly fluctuated under the impact of great drought. For the other subsystems, the carrying capacity of the ecological environment, social and economic subsystems are increased steadily, except that the water resources subsystem is relatively fragile and largely affected by climate fluctuation. [Conclusion] According to the evaluation results, the pressure of water resources in Kunming is still great, thus the water resources carrying capacity of Kunming can be enhanced through the measures of optimizing and upgrading the industrial structure, gradually eliminating industries with high energy and water consumptions, optimizing the allocation of water resources to ensure water amount and quality, strengthening the construction of ecological civilization, etc., so as to ensure the sustainable economic and social development therein.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2023.02.007
中图分类号:TV213.4
引用信息:
[1]周齐彬,邹进,容祎,等.基于矩估计-TOPSIS-RSR昆明市水资源承载力综合评价[J],2023,54(02):73-84.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2023.02.007.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金项目(41061053)