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城市洪涝风险评估是灾害预防和调控的重要工具。以郑州市主城区为例提出了基于改进熵权-TOPSIS-灰色关联分析的城市洪涝风险评估方法。运用城市洪涝一二维耦合模拟模型及GIS空间分析技术，量化了城市洪涝风险评估指标体系，采用耦合熵权和层次分析法计算了评估指标权重，权重占比前五位的指标为淹没水深、人口密度、淹没流速、高程、坡度，权重分别为0.239、0.173、0.144、0.115、0.079。构建基于TOPSIS-灰色关联的城市洪涝风险综合评估模型，采用灰色关联度改进欧氏距离计算各区域与理想状态的接近程度，提高评估结果合理性。结合实际灾情数据及灾害成因分析对结果合理性进行检验，并将研究结果与TOPSIS-灰色关联、改进熵权-TOPSIS方法进行对比，验证所提出方法的有效性。结果表明：郑州市洪涝中高风险区域占比41.09%,主要分布在郑州市金水区、中原区东部、二七区东北部及西部靠近河网的地区，这些区域表现出较高的淹没水深，且人口、建筑物密集，经济比较发达；次低与低风险区域占比58.91%,主要分布在研究区外围，即惠济区北部、中原区西部、二七区西南部和管城回族区南部。研究成果可为极端暴雨下城市洪涝灾害调控和应急管理提供参考。
Abstract：Urban flood risk assessment is an important tool for disaster prevention and control. By taking the main urban area of Zhengzhou as the study case, an improved entropy weight-TOPSIS-grey correlation analysis-based method for the assessment of urban flood-waterlogging risk is proposed herein. With 1 D and 2 D coupling simulation model for urban flood-waterlogging and GIS spatial analysis technique, the index system for assessing urban flood-waterlogging risk is quantified, while the assessment index weights are calculated by coupling entropy weighting and analytic hierarchy process method, for which the top five indexes are inundation depth, population density, inundation flow rate, elevation and gradient with the weights of 0.239, 0.173, 0.144, 0.115 and 0.079 respectively. Subsequently, a TOPSIS-grey correlation-based comprehensive assessment model for urban flood-waterlogging risk is built up, and then the proximities of all the areas to their ideal states are calculated by means of improving Euclidean distance with gray correlation degree, so as to improve the reasonabilities of the assessment results. In combination with the relevant actual disaster data and the analysis of disaster causes, the reasonabilities of the results are verified, and then the study results are compared with those from TOPSIS-Grey correlation and improved entropy-TOPSIS methods for verifying the effectiveness of the proposed method. The results show that the medium and high risk areas of flood-waterlogging in Zhengzhou account for 41.09% and are mainly distributed in Jinshui District, the eastern part of Zhongyuan District, the northeastern part of Erqi District and the western part near river network in the city, where inundated water depths are higher and both population and buildings are dense with relatively developed economy, while the sub-low and low risk areas account for 58.91% and are mainly distributed in the surrounding areas outside the study area, i.e. the northern part of Huiji District, the western part of Zhongyuan District, the southwestern part of Erqi District and the southern part of Guancheng Hui District. The study results can provide references for urban flood-waterlogging disaster regulation and control as well as the relevant emergency management under extreme rainstorm.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2022.10.004
中图分类号:TU992
引用信息:
[1]赵佳慧,许红师,王田野,等.基于改进熵权-TOPSIS-灰色关联方法的城市洪涝风险评估[J],2022,53(10):58-73.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2022.10.004.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(52109040);国家自然科学基金重点项目(51739009)