水利水电技术（中英文）

在《巴黎协定》制定的1.5℃温控目标面临挑战的背景下,地球工程作为人为快速给地球降温的手段,逐渐成为学界关注的焦点话题之一。采用BNU-ESM模式的2020—2099年地球工程和非地球工程(RCP4.5)情景下的0.5°×0.5°的日值降水数据,基于中国气象局中央气象台划分的24 h降雨强度划分标准,诊断了地球工程实施期间(2020—2069年)和结束后(2070—2099年)的5种强度降雨量的空间格局及差异特征,以此来揭示地球工程实施对中国不同强度降雨量的潜在影响。结果表明:(1)地球工程在实施期间及结束后并未根本性改变中国不同强度降雨量的空间分布格局,两种情景下的中国不同强度降雨量空间高低分异格局具有相似性,但地球工程实施结束后的中国不同强度降雨量的相似性整体低于实施期间。(2)两种情景下的差异表明在地球工程实施期间,地球工程对中国低强度降雨量以促进作用为主,抑制作用为辅;对中高强度降雨量则以抑制作用为主,促进作用为辅。在地球工程实施结束后,地球工程对低强度降雨量起抑制作用的区域增多,对高强度降雨量起促进作用的区域增多。(3)地球工程情景下实施前后表明,相比实施期间,地球工程实施结束后对中国不同强度降雨量的影响主要以促进作用为主,抑制作用为辅。研究对于认识地球工程对中国气候的影响具有前瞻性意义,同时也可为中国在地球工程国际治理和谈判中提供科技支撑。

As a means of rapidly cooling the earth artificially, geoengineering has gradually become one of the focus topics in the academic circles under the background of the challenge of the 1.5 ℃ temperature control target formulated by the Paris Agreement. Based on the 24-hour rainfall intensity division criteria of the Central Meteorological Observatory of China Meteorological Administration, the spatial pattern and difference characteristics of five kinds of rainfall intensity during the implementation of geoengineering project(2020—2069) and after its completion(2070—2099) are diagnosed with the BNU-ESM daily precipitation data of 0.5°×0.5° under the geoengineering and non-geoengineering(RCP4.5) scenarios, so as to reveal the potential impact from the implementation of the geoengineering project on rainfalls with different intensities in China. The results show that:(1) during and after the implementation of the geoengineering project, the spatial distribution pattern of rainfalls with different intensities in China is not fundamentally changed, while the spatial high-low differentiatial pattern of the rainfalls with different intensities in China under the two scenarios are similar, however, the similarities of the rainfalls with different intensities after the implementation of the geoengineering project in China are generally lower than those during its implementation;(2) the difference between the two scenarios shows that the geoengineering project mainly plays a promotive role on the low-intensity rainfall with a inhibitive role as supplementation, while it mainly plays an inhibitive role on the mid-high intensity rainfall with a promotive role as the supplementation. After the completion of the geoengineering project, the regions under the inhibitive effect from the geoengineering project on low-intensity rainfall are increased, while regions under the promotive effect from the geoengineering project on high-intensity rainfall are increased;(3) under the scenarios before and after the implementation of the geoengineering project, it is indicated that the impact from the geoengineering project after its completion on the rainfalls with different intensities in China mainly plays a promotive role with a inhibitive role as supplementation if compared with the role during its implementation. The study does not only has a forward-looking significance for understanding the impact from the geoengineering project on China's climate, but also can provide scientific and technological support for China in the relevant international governance and negotiation of the geoengineering project.