水利水电技术（中英文）

科学合理的电力系统中长期规划是实现地区可持续发展的重要保障,然而电力需求波动以及不确定的环境政策给管理决策带来了风险与挑战。将两阶段随机优化方法与模糊理论相结合,提出了两阶段模糊随机优化(TFSP)方法,能够有效处理多重不确定信息,并且在决策过程中体现决策者风险偏好。以宁夏地区为例开展不确定环境下的电力系统中长期规划实证研究,结合目前宁夏地区的发电结构、未来电力需求、可再生资源开发利用潜力、污染物排放控制等因素,建立以系统收益最大化为目标的电力系统中长期优化模型。结果表明,TFSP方法能够有效地帮助不同风险偏好的管理者实现复杂不确定环境下电力系统机组扩容、污染物技术投资等决策支持。

Long-term planning in a scientific and reasonable regional power system is an important guarantee for the realization of regional sustainable development, during which fluctuations in power demand and uncertain environmental policies pose challenges to efficient decision-making. A new two-stage fuzzy stochastic perfection(TFSP) method is proposed in this paper by linking the two-stage stochastic perfection method with fuzzy theory, which can effectively deal with multiple uncertain information and realize decision optimization considering the risk preference of decision makers. A medium and long-term decision-making model for power system with maximum system income is established by conducting empirical research of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region and according to the current power generation structure, future demand level, development and utilization potential of renewable resources, pollutant emission control, etc. The results indicate that the TFSP method proposed in this paper can effectively offer decision support to managers in power generation expansion planning and pollutant technology investment with different risk preferences.