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为揭示有效降雨量模型中降雨天数与滑坡裂缝位移之间的关联，提出基于有效降雨量模型与皮尔逊相关系数的计算方法。以奉节县新铺滑坡作为研究对象，利用地质灾害监测系统采集滑坡位移与日降雨量数据，对奉节城市裂缝2的监测点位移与降雨天数进行相关性分析。基于相关度分析结果，对相关系数r与日前降雨量Rn中天数n进行曲线拟合，提出针对新铺滑坡不同时期有效降雨量模型天数n的最佳取值。结果表明：奉节县降雨集中时期，监测点裂缝位移剧烈变化，与日有效降雨量Re呈显著相关，日前降雨量Rn的降雨天数n最佳取值为15 d;降雨稀少时期，监测点裂缝位移变化缓慢且不明显，与日有效降雨量Re呈低度相关，日前降雨量Rn的降雨天数n最佳取值为11 d;日前降雨天数n与相关系数r呈指数函数曲线分布。
Abstract：In order to reveal the correlation between the number of rainfall days in the effective rainfall model and the displacement of landslide crack, an effective rainfall model and the Pearson correlation coefficient-based calculation method is proposed herein. Taking Xinpu Landslide in Fengjie County as the study object, the relevant landslide displacement and daily rainfall data are collected with geological disaster monitoring system, and then the correlation between the displacements at two crack-monitoring points in Fengjie City and the rainfall days is analyzed. In accordance with the correlation analysis result, the curve-fitting for the correlation coefficient r and the number of days n in the day-ahead rainfall Rn is made and the optimal values for the number of days n of the effective rainfall model in different periods of Xinpu Landslide are put forward. The result shows that the crack displacements at the monitoring points are drastically changed during the rainfall concentration periods, which are significantly correlated to the effective daily rainfall Re, while the optimal value of the rainfall days n of the day-ahead rainfall Rn is 15 d. During the period of scarce rainfall, the change of the crack displacement at monitoring point is slow and not so significant, which exhibits low correlation to the day-ahead effective rainfall Re, while the optimal value of the rainfall days n is 11 d and the number of day-ahead rainfall days n is distributed in an exponential function curve with the correlation coefficient r.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2022.02.013
中图分类号:P642.22
引用信息:
[1]岑越,刘振平,刘建,等.奉节新铺滑坡裂缝位移与降雨天数相关性研究[J],2022,53(02):133-141.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2022.02.013.
基金信息:
湖北省自然科学基金项目(E0312502);; 国家自然科学基金项目(51779249)