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全球变暖导致的极端气候已成为人类社会可持续发展的巨大挑战,极端气候背景下小流域尺度的未来气候变化更值得关注。结合ERA-Interim再分析资料及CMIP6模式,采用QM、DT、LOCI、Delta四种方法对模式历史数据降尺度,综合RMSE、NSE、R2三个指标选取最佳降尺度方法,对大凌河流域未来气温、降水情景进行预估。结果表明,未来流域年平均温、最高温、最低温均呈增温趋势,但不同情景增温速率不同,由大到小依次是SSP585(平均温、最高温和最低温依次为0.65℃/10 a、0.54℃/10 a、0.59℃/10 a)>SSP370(0.46℃/10 a、0.43℃/10 a、0.48℃/10 a)>SSP245(0.27℃/10 a、0.27℃/10 a、0.29℃/10 a)>SSP126(0.07℃/10 a、0.13℃/10 a、0.12℃/10 a)。未来流域气温大致由南向北降低,年平均温、最高温距平范围分别为0～2.2℃和0.2～2.4℃,且气温距平西部高于东部;最低温距平范围为-1.0～1.2℃,其中SSP126和SSP245情景距平为负,流域内呈现出降温趋势。未来流域年降水量波动剧烈,除SSP126情景年降水增长速率为负外,其他情景年降水均呈缓慢增长的趋势;年降水量自东南向西北逐渐减少,降水距平百分率向西逐渐增大。
Abstract：The extreme climate caused by global warming has become a huge challenge for the sustainable development of human society, and future climate changes at the scale of small watersheds under the background of extreme climates are more worthy of attention. Based on ERA-Interim reanalysis data and CMIP6 model, QM, DT, LOCI, and Delta methods were used to downscale CMIP6 historical data. RMSE, NSE, R2 were used to select the best downscaling method to project the future temperature and precipitation in the Daling River Basin. The results show that the annual average temperature, the highest temperature, and the lowest temperature of the river basin will increase in the future, but the temperature increase rate is different for different scenarios. The descending order is SSP585(the average temperature, the highest temperature and the lowest temperature are 0.65 ℃/10 a, 0.54 ℃/10 a, 0.59 ℃/10 a)>SSP370(0.46 ℃/10 a, 0.43 ℃/10 a, 0.48 ℃/10 a)>SSP245(0.27 ℃/10 a, 0.27 ℃/10 a, 0.29 ℃/10 a)>SSP126(0.07 ℃/10 a, 0.13 ℃/10 a, 0.12 ℃/10 a). In the future, the temperature of the basin will gradually decrease from south to north. The annual average temperature and maximum temperature anomaly range from 0 ℃～2.2 ℃ and 0.2 ℃～2.4 ℃ respectively, and the temperature anomaly is generally higher in the western than the eastern; the lowest temperature anomaly range It is-1.0 ℃～1.2 ℃, and the anomalies of SSP126 and SSP245 scenarios are negative, and there is a cooling trend in the basin. In the future, the annual precipitation in the basin will fluctuate drastically. Except for the negative annual precipitation growth rate in the SSP126 scenario, the annual precipitation in the other scenarios will show a slow growth trend; the annual precipitation will gradually decrease from the southeast to the northwest, and the precipitation anomaly percentage will gradually increase to the west.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2021.09.002
中图分类号:P467
引用信息:
[1]刘倩,高路,马苗苗,等.辽宁大凌河流域气温和降水降尺度研究[J],2021,52(09):16-31.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2021.09.002.
基金信息:
国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFE0206400);; 福建省科技厅省属公益类科研专项(2019R1002-3);; 福建省灾害天气重点实验室开放课题(2020KFKT01);福建省灾害天气重点实验室重大科技专项课题(2020TF06);; 上海台风研究基金项目(TFJJ201910)