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【目的】针对全国社会经济发展布局与水资源承载力不相匹配，导致资源与经济的协调发展受到约束等问题，以优化全国社会经济的适水发展布局为目标，剖析31个省级行政区现状水资源与社会经济发展水平的协调程度。【方法】通过构建水资源-社会经济复合系统耦合协调评价指标体系，建立耦合协调度模型，从时间、空间两个维度探究全国水资源与社会经济耦合协调发展关系的时空演变规律，并借助障碍度函数进一步分析影响二者耦合协调发展的主要障碍因子。【结果】结果表明：2010—2020年，全国水资源与社会经济的耦合协调发展水平呈上升趋势，耦合协调度值由2010年的0.11提高到2020年的0.69;各省的耦合协调发展水平总体也呈上升趋势，31省耦合协调度的数值范围由2010年的0.10～0.42提高到2020年的0.46～0.69,且变化趋势表现为3种类型：26省为“上升型”,福建、西藏、浙江3省为“平稳型”,青海和海南2省为“波动型”。【结论】2020年，19省达到协调发展水平，12省仍处于过渡阶段且均为社会经济过快发展型地区；主要障碍因子有人均水资源量、人均综合用水量与人均GDP等，各省之间存在地区差异。以湖北省为例，分析新冠疫情前后(2019—2020年)水资源与社会经济耦合协调趋势发生突变的原因，表明分析结果与实际情况基本相符。研究成果可为优化全国层面社会经济发展布局、促进水资源空间均衡提供参考。
Abstract：[Objective] Aiming at the problem of the mismatch between the national socioeconomic development layout and the carrying capacity of water resources, which leads to that the coordinated development of resources and economy are constrained. By taking optimizing the national socioeconomic development layout adaptable to water as the target, the coordination degrees between the current water resources and the socioeconomic development levels in 31 provinces are analyzed herein. [Methods]Through building up the evaluation index system for water resources-socioeconomic composite system and establishing the relevant coupling coordination degree model, the spatio-temporal evolution law of the coordinated development relationship of the coupling between the national water resources and social economy is temporally and spatially explored, while the main obstacle factors affecting the coupling and coordinated development between both of them are further analyzed by means of obstacle degree function. [Results] The results show that in the period of 2010-2020, the coordinated development level of the coupling between the national water resources and social economy exhibits a rising trend with the increase of the value of the coupling coordination degree from 0.11 in 2010 to 0.69 in 2010, while the coupling and coordinated developments of all the provinces are also present rising trends with the changes of the numerical values of the coupling coordination degrees of the 31 provinces from 0.10～0.42 in 2010 to 0.46～0.69 in 2020, in which the changing trends show that 26 provinces are characterized by the “rising type”, the provinces of Fujian, Tibet and Zhejiang are characterized by the “smooth type” and the provinces of Qinghai and Hainan are characterized by the “fluctuated type”. [Conclusion] In 2020, 19 provinces reach the coordinated development stage, while the other 12 provinces are still in the transitional stage due to excessive socioeconomic development, for which the main obstacle factors are water resources per capita, water consumption per capita and GDP per capita, etc. with the regional differences among all the provinces. Taking Hubei Province as a case, the causations of the sudden change of the coordination trend of the coupling between water resources and social economy before and after the COVID-19 epidemic(2019-2020) are analyzed and the results indicate that the analysis results are basically coincided with those of the actual situations. This study results can provide the relevant references for optimizing the layout of the socioeconomic development at national level and promote the spatial equilibrium of water resources.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2023.01.006
中图分类号:TV213.4;F124
引用信息:
[1]张茵,王婷,游进军,等.全国水-社会经济耦合协调时空演变及其障碍因子分析[J],2023,54(01):64-74.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2023.01.006.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金项目(52079143);; 国家重点研发计划(2018YFC0407705);; 河北省重点研发计划项目(21374201D);; 中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室开放研究基金(lWHR-SKL-202215)