水利水电技术（中英文）

【目的】大型水库作为区域水资源调控的重要基础设施，在抗旱减灾中发挥着日益凸显的战略作用。水库抗旱减灾综合效应的评价涉及多因素、多量纲，如何科学准确地量化水库的综合抗旱减灾效应已成为当前研究的难点。【方法】首先构建了“抗旱能力—抗旱效应—减灾效益”三维九指标的指标体系；然后采用熵权法耦合三维欧几里得模长（EWM-3D-ENM）的综合评价方法，将指标向量映射至三维效应空间，并通过计算其欧几里得模长，实现对多维指标的统一量化评价；最后，结合水资源综合模拟与调配模型（WAS模型）开展龙盘水库建设前后的长江流域抗旱减灾情势变化分析。【结果】研究表明，在极端干旱情景下，水库工程建设对区域抗旱减灾能力具有显著的综合提升作用，龙盘水库建成后干流梯级库群库径比提升 47.5%，水库蓄满率略有下降，但仍能保持在 95%以上；干流受水区域枯期可供水量增长 11.7%。总缺水率降幅为61.5%；相应的减损效益为89.8亿元。综合抗旱减灾效应指数由 0.49 提升至 0.75，增幅达 54.5%。【结论】该方法体系可实现干旱场景下水库综合抗旱减灾效应科学评价，具备较强的普适性与实用性，可为区域抗旱规划和水资源优化配置提供科学决策依据。

[Objective] Large-scale reservoirs are recognized as critical infrastructure for regional water resources regulation， playing an increasingly strategic role in drought mitigation. The evaluation of their comprehensive drought mitigation effects involves multiple factors and dimensions， posing significant challenges in achieving accurate and scientific quantification.[Methods]A three-dimensional indicator system was established， comprising nine indicators across three dimensions: drought resistance capacity， drought mitigation effect， and disaster reduction benefit. A comprehensive evaluation approach was then developed by coupling the entropy weight method with a three-dimensional Euclidean norm model (EWM-3D-ENM). In this approach， indicator vectors were projected into a three-dimensional effect space， and their Euclidean norm lengths were calculated to enable unified quantitative assessment. Based on this framework， the Water Allocation Simulation (WAS) model was applied to simulate changes in drought mitigation performance in the Yangtze River Basin before and after the construction of the Longpan Reservoir.[Results]Under extreme drought scenarios， significant improvements in regional drought mitigation capacity were observed following the implementation of the reservoir project. The storage-to-runoff ratio of cascade reservoirs along the mainstream increased by 47.5%， and although the reservoir filling rate slightly declined， it remained above 95%. The available water supply during the dry season increased by 11.7% in key downstream areas. The total water shortage rate was reduced by 61.5%， with associated economic loss reduction benefits reaching 8.98 billion CNY. The comprehensive drought mitigation effect index rose from 0.49 to 0.75， representing a 54.5% increase.[Conclusion] The proposed evaluation method enables objective and integrated assessment of reservoir drought mitigation effects under drought scenarios. It exhibits strong generalizability and practical applicability， providing a scientific basis for regional drought management and optimized water resource allocation.