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【目的】如何实现生态系统服务与人类福祉的耦合协调对建设区域生态文明具有重要意义。【方法】通过构建人类福祉评价指标体系，运用修正的当量因子法、耦合协调度模型、空间计量模型等，探析2005—2023年鄱阳湖流域的时空耦合协调关系及空间效应。【结果】(1)研究期间鄱阳湖流域整体处于“生态系统服务价值波动下降，人类福祉持续提升”阶段；耦合协调度从0.393增至0.531,从中度失调过渡至磨合阶段，呈现北高中低的空间分布。(2)耦合协调度呈显著的正向聚集，空间相关性呈先降后增再降的趋势。整体高值聚集较为稳定，低值聚集出现转移：高聚集类型主要分布在鄱阳湖周边，低聚集类型从鹰潭市周边转移至瑞昌市、安义县等侧重工业的区县，并且在宜春市辖区周边存在扩张趋势。(3)本地耦合协调度增涨主要受到邻近区县植被质量、产业结构、工业发展、政府干预、经济活力的正向溢出效应影响，其次为产业结构、工业发展、经济活力的直接影响，植被质量和政府干预对本地耦合协调发展存在负面影响。【结论】2005—2023年研究区耦合协调水平整体稳步提升，未来可从扭转政府干预、植被质量对本地耦合协调发展的负向作用，并通过调整产业结构、推动工业发展等方式实现鄱阳湖流域整体耦合协调发展的一体化提升。
Abstract：[Objective]Achieving the coupling coordination of ecosystem services and human well-being is crucial for the development of regional ecological civilization.[Methods]By establishing an evaluation index system of human well-being, the spatiotemporal coupling coordination relationship and spatial effects in the Poyang Lake Basin from 2005 to 2023 were analyzed by using the modified equivalent factor method, coupling coordination degree model, and spatial econometric model.[Results](1) During the study period, the Poyang Lake Basin was in the stage of “fluctuating decline in ecosystem service values and continuous improvement in human well-being”. The coupling coordination degree increased from 0.393 to 0.531, transitioning from moderate imbalance to coordination, with a spatial distribution of higher values in the north and lower values in the middle.(2) The coupling coordination degree showed significant positive clustering, with spatial correlation showing a trend of initial decrease, followed by an increase, and then another decrease. Overall, high-value clustering remained relatively stable, while low-value clustering shifted: high-value clustering types were mainly distributed around Poyang Lake, while low-value clustering types shifted from the vicinity of Yingtan City to industrial-focused districts and counties such as Ruichang City and Anyi County, with an expansion trend around the Yichun City area.(3) The increase in local coupling coordination degree was primarily influenced by positive spillover effects of vegetation quality, industrial structure, industrial development, government intervention, and economic vitality in neighboring districts and counties. Direct effects of industrial structure, industrial development, and economic vitality also contributed, while vegetation quality and government intervention had negative effects on the local coupling coordination development.[Conclusion]From 2005 to 2023, the overall coupling coordination in the study area has improved steadily. In the future, efforts should focus on mitigating the negative effects of government intervention and vegetation quality on local coupling coordination development. Additionally, achieving integrated improvement in the coupling coordination development of the Poyang Lake Basin can be facilitated by adjusting industrial structure and promoting industrial development.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.08.006
中图分类号:X171.1;F124.5
引用信息:
[1]唐国华,胡坤琳,甘黎黎.鄱阳湖流域生态系统服务与人类福祉的时空耦合及空间效应[J].水利水电技术(中英文),2025,56(08):78-90.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.08.006.
基金信息:
国家社科资助项目(20BGL227); 江西省高校人文项目(JC23106)
2025-03-06
2025-03-06
2025-03-06