水利水电技术（中英文）

根据黄河流域10个监测点1951~2001年的月降水资料,依据两种不同划分标准利用Z指数进行了月尺度旱涝等级划分;即:通过事实比较,选择较合适的划分标准,并对Z指数趋势图、重大等级旱涝灾害变化趋势、空间分布、游程理论数字特征、游程数目及重现期进行分析。结果表明:10个监测点近51年均有增旱趋势,特别安阳、天水、榆林、西安、太原地区增旱趋势更明显;平凉以东,太原以南,郑州以西,西安以北这一区域发生重、大干旱等级次数比其他区域多,其次济南地区较其他监测点更易发生连续2个月的大旱和大涝。

Based on the monthly precipitation data of 1951 ~ 2001 from 10 meteorological stations within the Yellow River Basin,the drought and waterlogging grade of monthly-scale is divided with Z index according to two different division criteria; i. e. choosing more appropriate division criteria through the relevant fact comparison,and then analyzing the trend graph of Z index,the drought and waterlogging disaster changing trend of important grade,the spatial distribution,the numerical characteristics of the run theory,the number of run and the return period. The result shows that the increasing trends of drought are there at all the 10 meteorological stations in the recent 51 years; especially the increasing trends of drought are more obvious in the regions of Anyang,Tianshui,Yulin,Xian and Taiyuan,while the number of the droughts with heavy scale and large scale grades to be occurred within the region of the east of Pingliang,the south of Taiyuan,the west of Zhengzhou and the north of Xian is more than that of the other regions,in the next place,the large-scale droughts of the two consecutive months are more prone to occur in the region of Jinan than in the other regions.