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【目的】针对气候变化对季节性冰封水库水环境的显著影响并引发严重供水安全问题，为保障水库供水水质，有必要定量识别气温升高与水位波动对底层水温与溶解氧(DO)的关键影响阈值，为水库适应性调度提供科学依据。【方法】以东北地区大型水源汤河水库为研究对象，通过构建基于Delft3D的三维水动力水质耦合模型，模拟未来气候情景与运行水位组合下水库底层水温与DO的动态演变过程。模型经实测数据验证，水温与DO模拟的决定系数(R2)分别高于0.96和0.88，表明模型性能优越。【结果】结果表明：未来气候变暖与库水位波动的共同作用将显著改变水库底层水热与DO时空分布规律。底层水温随气温升高而显著上升，且受运行水位调控影响，高排放高水位运行情形下水库热分层持续时间达到最长的219天，高排放低水位运行时水库热分层出现时间提前且底层水温达到最高的23.96℃。水库底层DO平均浓度随气温升高而下降，从低排放高水位运行情景的8.21 mg/L降至高排放低水位运行情景的6.07 mg/L；同时，厌氧持续时间从107天延长至154天。【结论】气候变化与运行水位下降会显著加剧水库的热分层现象及底层缺氧风险，需采取动态预警与生态调适相结合的综合防控措施。借助Delft3D水动力水质耦合模型，可基于气候变化模式，定量识别气温与运行水位影响上述过程的关键阈值，为水库在气候变化背景下的水质风险管理提供了具体且可操作的决策依据。
Abstract：[Objective] Climate change has a significant impact on the water environment of seasonally ice-covered reservoirs and poses serious threats to water supply security. To ensure reservoir water supply quality， it is necessary to quantitatively identify the key thresholds at which air temperature rise and water level fluctuations affect bottom water temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO)， thereby providing a scientific basis for adaptive reservoir operation. [Methods] Taking the Tanghe Reservoir， a large water source in Northeast China， as the study site， a three-dimensional hydrodynamic-water quality coupled model based on Delft3D was constructed to simulate the dynamic evolution of bottom water temperature and dissolved oxygen (DO) in the reservoir under combined future climate scenarios and operational water levels. The model was validated using measured data， with the coefficient of determination (R) for water temperature and DO simulations exceeding 0.96 and 0.88， respectively， indicating superior model performance. [Results] The results showed that the combined effects of future climate warming and reservoir water level fluctuations significantly altered the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of bottom water temperature and DO in the reservoir. The bottom water temperature increased significantly with rising air temperature and was regulated by the operational water level. Under the high-emission and high-water-level scenario， the duration of thermal stratification reached a maximum of 219 days. Under the high-emission and low-water-level scenario， the onset of thermal stratification occurred earlier， and the bottom water temperature reached a maximum of 23.96℃. The mean DO concentration in the bottom layer decreased with increasing air temperature， decreasing from 8.21 mg/L under the low-emission and high-water-level scenario to 6.07 mg/L under the high-emission and low-water-level scenario. Meanwhile， the duration of anoxia was prolonged from 107 days to 154 days. [Conclusion] Climate change and declining operational water levels will markedly intensify thermal stratification and bottom-water hypoxia risks in reservoirs， necessitating integrated prevention and control measures that combine dynamic early warning and ecological regulation. By utilizing the Delft3D hydrodynamic-water quality coupled model， key thresholds for the impacts of air temperature and operational water levels on these processes can be quantitatively identified based on climate change patterns. This provides specific and actionable decision-making support for reservoir water quality risk management in the context of climate change.
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基本信息:
中图分类号:P467;TV697
引用信息:
[1]关昊鹏,李依杭,刘淑敏,等.季节性冰封水库热分层与底层缺氧对气候变化的响应研究[J].水利水电技术(中英文)().
基金信息:
国家重点研发计划（2024YFC3213000）; 国家自然科学基金项目（42377412）
2026-06-28
2026-06-28
2026-06-28