水利水电技术（中英文）

北运河流域属于北方典型缺水性流域,研究流域降水趋势变化及其突变特征对于区域水资源优化配置及生态流量保障均具有重要意义。本文利用北运河流域1960—2016年降水数据,运用线性回归法、滑动平均分析和累积距平法分析了流域内降水量的变化趋势,利用滑动t检验、Mann-Kendall突变检验法和Pettitt法进行了降水序列突变分析,并采用小波分析法分析了降水量的周期性特征。分析表明:(1)北运河流域年内降水分布不均,年际降水上升下降交替出现,多年平均降水量总体上出现微弱减少变化。(2)流域降水量空间分布上表现为中游区域降水量相对较多,上游山区和下游平原地区次之。(3)流域降水量在1996年前后出现较明显的突变特征,突变时间节点与海河流域大区域格局变化具有一致性。(4)流域存在3个不同尺度的"丰-枯"变化周期,其中以8～17 a时间尺度的6次振荡表现最为稳定和显著,第一主周期为13 a。

The Northern Canal Basin belongs to the typical water-deficient watershed in the north. It is of great significance to study the changes of precipitation trends and its abrupt changes in the regional water resources for optimal allocation and ecological flow guarantee. In this paper, using the precipitation data from 1960 to 2016 in the Northern Canal Basin, using linear regression method, sliding average analysis and cumulative anomaly method to analyze the trend change of precipitation in the basin, using sliding test, Mann-Kendall mutation test and Pettitt method for precipitation mutation analysis was carried out, and the periodic variation of precipitation in the basin was analyzed by wavelet analysis. The results show that:(1) The uneven distribution of precipitation throughout the year in the North Canal Basin, inter-annual precipitation rises and falls alternately, and the annual average precipitation generally shows a slight decrease.(2) The spatial distribution of precipitation in the basin shows the relative precipitation in the middle reaches. Most of them are in the upper mountainous area and the lower plain area.(3) The abrupt change of precipitation in the basin occurred around 1996, and the abrupt time node is consistent with the large regional pattern change in the Haihe River Basin.(4) There are three "abundant-dry" change cycles at different scales. Among them, the 6 oscillations on the 8～17 a time scale show the most stable and significant, and the first main cycle is 13 a.