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【目的】全球气候变化背景下，极端湿热事件频发且影响广泛，对人体健康、社会经济和生态系统造成严重威胁，研究极端湿热事件时空演变及其对前期极端降水的响应规律，为完善区域气候变化适应策略和极端天气事件预警系统提供了科学依据。【方法】本文基于1985—2024年湖北省17个城市的ERA5再分析数据，采用简化湿球黑球温度（sWBGT）指数识别极端湿热事件，运用趋势检验、多元回归等方法，系统分析了研究区极端湿热事件的时空演变特征及其对极端降水的响应机制。【结果】（1）湖北省极端湿热事件呈现显著增加趋势，历时也表现出增加趋势，尤其是HS-EP型（有前期极端降水的湿热事件）；（2）极端湿热事件具有不同的空间分布组合，西部地区高频次（频次＞80次）、长历时（＞5.6天）、低强度（＜35），中部地区低频次（频次＜70次）、短历时（＜4.8天）、高强度（＞36）；（3）前期极端降水对极端湿热事件具有调节作用，HS-EP事件与HS-NEP事件（无前期极端降水的湿热事件）三个对数特征（频次、历时、强度）的比分别为-1.200、0.148、-0.005；（4）前期极端降水影响表现出明显的时滞性和区域差异性，呈现“短期抑制（1～2d）-长期促进（7～10d）”的演变模式。【结论】研究揭示了湖北省极端湿热事件时空分布格局及其对前期降水的响应规律，为理解全球变暖背景下区域极端湿热事件与极端降水交互响应机制提供了新思路。
Abstract：[Objective] In the context of global climate change， extreme hot and humid events have become more frequent and widespread， posing significant threats to human health， socioeconomic development， and ecosystems. Investigating the spatiotemporal evolution of extreme hot and humid events and their response patterns to preceding extreme precipitation provides a scientific basis for improving regional climate adaptation strategies and early warning systems for extreme weather events. [Methods] Based on ERA5 reanalysis data from 17 cities in Hubei Province from 1985 to 2024， extreme hot and humid events were identified using the simplified Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (sWBGT) index. Trend tests， multiple regression， and other methods were applied to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of extreme hot and humid events in the study area and their response mechanisms to extreme precipitation. [Results] (1) Extreme hot and humid events in Hubei Province exhibited a significant increasing trend， and their duration showed an upward trend， particularly for HS-EP events (hot and humid events with preceding extreme precipitation). (2) Extreme hot and humid events showed different spatial distribution patterns. The western region experienced high frequency (>80 times)， long duration (>5.6 days)， and low intensity (<35)， while the central region exhibited low frequency (<70 times)， short duration (<4.8 days)， and high intensity (>36). (3) Preceding extreme precipitation played a regulatory role in extreme hot and humid events. The logarithmic ratios of three characteristics (frequency， duration， and intensity) between HS-EP events and HS-NEP events (hot and humid events without preceding extreme precipitation) were -1.200， 0.148， and -0.005， respectively. (4) The impact of preceding extreme precipitation showed notable lagged effects and regional differences， exhibiting an evolution pattern of “short-term suppression (1～2 days) – long-term enhancement (7～10 days)”. [Conclusion] The findings reveal the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of extreme hot and humid events in Hubei Province and their response patterns to preceding precipitation， providing new insights into the interactive response mechanisms between regional extreme hot and humid events and extreme precipitation under global warming.
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基本信息:
中图分类号:P467
引用信息:
[1]涂玉凤,方建,程晓亮,等.1985—2024年湖北省极端湿热事件时空演变及其对前期极端降水的响应[J].水利水电技术(中英文)().
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金项目(42077441); 武汉市知识创新专项曙光计划项目(2023020201020388); 中央高校基本科研业务费项目(CCNU25JCPT028)
2025-07-24
2025-07-24
2025-07-24