| 715 | 4 | 347 |
| 下载次数 | 被引频次 | 阅读次数 |
【目的】全球气候变暖影响下，珠江流域极端降水特征发生改变，厘清珠江流域雨型变化特征对防洪减灾具有重要意义。【方法】利用珠江流域125个地面气象站点1979—2018年逐时雨量资料，基于百分位阈值法定义极端强降水事件，应用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall法等方法对珠江流域极端降水的历时、雨型时空变化特征进行分析。其中，不同历时(短历时1～6 h,中历时7～12 h,长历时>12 h)极端降水雨型采用模糊识别法进行识别；降水雨型根据以下7类确定：Ⅰ—Ⅲ为单峰型，分别为前期集中型、后期集中型和中期集中型；Ⅳ为均匀型降水；Ⅴ—Ⅶ为双峰型降水，两个雨峰分别位于降水事件的前部和后部、前部和中部、中部和后部。【结果】(1)珠江流域短、中、长历时极端降水出现频次分别为65%,26%和9%;1979—2018年，不同历时降水均呈现增加趋势，且短历时极端降水增加趋势显著。(2)珠江流域单峰型降水在总降水事件的占比为90%,短历时极端降水全流域以Ⅰ型降水为主；中历时极端降水除北江流域以Ⅱ型降水为主外，其他地区均以Ⅲ型为主；长历时极端降水在西江流域中部以Ⅰ、Ⅲ型为主，其他地区以Ⅱ型为主。(3)相较前20年，1999—2018年短历时降水流域大部分地区保持Ⅰ型降水为主不变；中历时降水在珠江三角洲和东江流域大部分地区表现为以Ⅲ型降水为主向Ⅱ型降水为主转变；长历时降水在东部地区多保持Ⅱ型降水不变或Ⅱ型降水向Ⅲ型降水转变，在西部地区多保持Ⅲ型降水不变或Ⅲ型降水为主向Ⅱ型降水为主转变。【结论】珠江流域短历时极端降水频次最高，主要为前期集中型降水，大部分地区未发生雨型转变。中、长历时极端降水的雨型分布差异显著，西部以中期集中型为主，东部多为后期集中型。东部地区主导雨型多保持不变或由中期向后期转变，西部主导雨型多保持原有雨型或由后期型向中期型转变。各地区需根据不同降水类型和特征，因地制宜地加强防洪减灾措施，特别应关注长历时极端降水事件对东部地区的影响。
Abstract：[Objective]Under the context of global warming, spatio-temperal pattern of extreme heavy precipitation in the Pearl River Basin have been changing and posesgreat challenges to flood prevention and disaster mitigation.[Methods]Basd on the hourly precipitation data of 125 meteorological stations in the Pearl River Basin from 1979 to 2018, the percentile threshold method is used to define the extreme heavy precipitation events. The extreme precipitation with different durations(1～6 h short duration event, 7～12 h medium duration event, and >12 h long duration event) is identified by fuzzy identification method, and seven rainfall type is considered for classification: single-peaked extreme Ⅰ—Ⅲ means the pre-centralized, the post-centralized, and the mid-centralized type, respectively; Ⅳ is the evenly distributed precipitation; double-peaked extreme Ⅴ—Ⅶ means, with the two peaks of rainfall being located in the beginning and the ending of event, the beginning and the middle of event, and the middle and the ending of the event, respectively. Identified. Then, changes of the rainfall duration and the rainfall type are analyzed in the Pearl River Basin by applying both the linear and non-linear trend analysis method.[Results](1) The short-, medium-, and long-duration rainfall accounts for 65%, 26%, and 9% of the total extreme precipitation in the Pearl River Basin, respectively. From 1979 to 2018,extreme precipitation with all durations has shown increasing trends, with significant risingtrend observed for short-duration extremes.(2) Short-duration extreme precipitation across the basin falls primarily to Type Ⅰ. For medium-duration extreme precipitation, Type Ⅱ dominates in the Beijiang Basin, while Type Ⅲ prevails in remaining regions. For long-duration extreme precipitation, Types Ⅰ and Ⅲ are predominant in the central Xijiang Basin, whereas Type Ⅱ is dominant in other regions.(3) Compared to the previous 20 years, short-duration precipitation for 1999—2018 in most of the basin continued to be mainly Type Ⅰ. Medium-duration precipitation showed a shift from Type Ⅲ to Type Ⅱ as the dominant type in most of the Pearl River Delta and the Dongjiang Basin. Long-duration precipitation in eastern basin mostly remained Type Ⅱ or shifted from Type Ⅱ to Type Ⅲ, while in western regions, Type Ⅲ remained predominant or shifted towards Type Ⅱ as the main type.[Conclusion]Frequency of the short-duration extreme precipitation is the highest in the Pearl River Basin, and primarily falls to the pre-centralized type has not shown obvious change in for the last 40 years. Distribution pattern of the medium-and the long-duration extreme precipitation shows clear regional differences with the mid-centralized type dominant in the western region while the post-centralized prevails in the eastern region. In the eastern part of the basin, the dominant rainfall pattern mostly remains stable or shifts from the mid-centralized type to the post-centralized, whereas in the western part, rainfall pattern either remains unchanged or shifts from the post-centralized type to the mid-centralized. For adapting flood prevention and disaster mitigation, the specific rainfall type and rainfall duration in the basin, particularly that of the long-duration events in eastern part needs to be considered fully.
[1] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Climate Change 2021-The Physical Science Basis:Working Group I Contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M].Cambridge,UK:Cambridge University Press,2023.
[2] 舒章康，李文鑫，张建云，等.中国极端降水和高温历史变化及未来趋势[J].中国工程科学，2022,24(5):116-125.SHU Zhangkang,LI Wenxin,ZHANG Jianyun et al.Historical changes and future trends of extreme precipitation and high temperature in China[J].China Engineering Science,2022,24(5):116-125.
[3] 罗兴树，章数语，郭园，等.极端降水对陕西省农业生产的影响[J].南水北调与水利科技(中英文),2024,22(2):339-347.LUO X S,ZHANG S Y,GUO Y,et al.The impact of extreme precipitation on agricultural production in Shanxi Province[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology,2024,22(2):339-347.
[4] ROY S S.A spatial analysis of extreme hourly precipitation patterns in India[J].International Journal of Climatology,2009,29(3):345-355.
[5] ROY S S,ROUAULT M.Spatial patterns of seasonal scale trends in extreme hourly precipitation in South Africa[J].Applied Geography,2013,39:151-157.
[6] LI J,YU R,SUN W.Duration and seasonality of hourly extreme rainfall in the central eastern China[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,2013,27(6):799-807.
[7] ZHAO Y,HUANG A N,KAN M Y,et al.Characteristics of hourly extreme precipitation along the Yangtze River Basin,China during warm season[J].Scientific Reports,2020,10(1):5613.
[8] GHASSABI Z,MESHKATEE A H,HAJAM S,et al.Time distribution of heavy rainfall events in south west of Iran[J].Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics,2016,145:53-60.
[9] WU X S,GUO S L,YIN J B,et al.On the event-based extreme precipitation across China:Time distribution patterns,trends,and return levels[J].Journal of Hydrology,2018,562:305-317.
[10] YU R,XU Y,ZHOU T,et al.Relation between rainfall duration and diurnal variation in the warm season precipitation over central eastern China[J].Geophysical Research Letters,2007,34(13):2007GL030315.
[11] 蒲义良，郭柏成，叶朗明，等.基于小时降水资料研究广东省降水分布特征[J].南京信息工程大学学报(自然科学版),2020,12(4):495-503.PU Yiliang,GUO Baicheng,YE Langming,et al.Characteristics of precipitation distribution in Guangdong Province based on hourly precipitation data[J].Journal of Nanjing University of Information Engineering (Natural Science Edition),2020,12(4):495-503.
[12] 苗爱梅，王洪霞，武捷.山西不同历时强降水的统计特征及趋势变化[J].高原气象，2020,39(4):796-807.MIAO Aimei,WANG Hongxia,WU Jie.Statistical characteristics and trend changes of heavy precipitation at different calendar times in Shanxi[J].Plateau Meteorology,2020,39(4):796-807.
[13] 朱秀迪，张强，孙鹏.北京市快速城市化对短时间尺度降水时空特征影响及成因[J].地理学报，2018,73(11):2086-2104.ZHU Xiudi,ZHANG Qiang,SUN Peng.Impacts and causes of rapid urbanization on spatial and temporal characteristics of precipitation at short time scales in Beijing[J].Journal of Geography,2018,73(11):2086-2104.
[14] 张礼，杨娜，张叶晖，等.长江流域极端降水事件时空变化特征及其与洪水响应关系[J].水文，2025,45(2):49-55.ZHANG Li,YANG Na,ZHANG Yehui,et al.Spatial-temporal variation characteristics of extreme precipitation events in the Yangtze River Basin and their relation with floods[J].Journal of China Hydrology,2025,45(2):49-55.
[15] 梁鑫，侯精明，陈光照，等.考虑降雨空间分布的城市内涝对模式雨型响应特征分析[J].水利水运工程学报，2024(2):44-54.LIANG Xin,HOU Jingming,CHEN Guangzhao,et al.Characterization of urban flooding response to model rainfall patterns considering rainfall spatial distribution[J].Journal of Water Resources and Water Transportation Engineering,2024(2):44-54.
[16] 曹经福，杨艳娟，郭军，等.天津市短时暴雨雨型时空分异及其对城市内涝的影响[J].气象与环境学报，2021,37(4):114-121.CAO Jingfu,YANG Yanjuan,GUO Jun,et al.Temporal and spatial variability of short-duration heavy rainfall patterns and their effects on urban flooding in Tianjin[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2021,37(4):114-121.
[17] 董新宁，吴遥，黄安宁，等.川渝地区夏季极端降水日变化特征分析[J].大气科学，2023,47(2):259-272.DONG Xinning,WU Yao,HUANG Anning,et al.Characterization of daily changes of extreme precipitation in Sichuan and Chongqing in summer[J].Atmospheric Science,2023,47(2):259-272.
[18] 张萍，杨昭辉，孙翀.珠江流域63年极端降水特征分析[J].水利发展研究，2018,18(2):34-39.ZHANG Ping,YANG Zhaohui,SUN Chong.Analysis of extreme precipitation characteristics in the Pearl River basin over 63 years [J].Water Resources Development Research,2018,18(2):34-39.
[19] ZHAO Y F,ZOU X Q,CAO L G,et al.Changes in precipitation extremes over the Pearl River Basin,southern China,during 1960—2012[J].Quaternary International,2014,333:26-39.
[20] SU C J,CHEN X H.Covariates for nonstationary modeling of extreme precipitation in the Pearl River Basin,China[J].Atmospheric Research,2019,229:224-239.
[21] 翟盘茂，王萃萃，李威.极端降水事件变化的观测研究[J].气候变化研究进展，2007(3):144-148.ZHAI Panmao,WANG Zuicui,LI Wei.Observational study of changes in extreme precipitation events[J].Progress in Climate Change Research,2007(3):144-148.
[22] LIU B J,CHEN J F,LU W X,et al.Spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation changes in the Pearl River Basin,China[J].Theoretical and applied climatology,2016,123:537-550.
[23] 王莉萍，王维国，张建忠.我国主要流域降水过程时空分布特征分析[J].自然灾害学报，2018,27(2):161-173.WANG Liping,WANG Weiguo,ZHANG Jianzhong.Characterization of spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation processes in major river basins in China[J].Journal of Natural Hazards,2018,27(2):161-173.
[24] CAI S,NIU K,MU X,et al.Spatiotemporal changes in extreme precipitation in China’s Pearl River Basin during 1951—2015[J].Water,2023,15(14):2634.
[25] NIU K,MU X,YANG X.Spatiotemporal pattern of precipitation in the Pearl River basin,China from 1951 to 2015[C]//EGU.Proceedings of the 25th EGU General Assembly.Vienna,Austria:EGU,2023:7987.
[26] 胡畔，陈波，史培军.中国暴雨洪涝灾情时空格局及影响因素[J].地理学报，2021,76(5):1148-1162.HU Shian,CHEN Bo,SHI Peijun.Spatial and temporal patterns of heavy rainfall and flooding in China and the factors affecting them[J].Journal of Geography,2021,76(5):1148-1162.
[27] 胡智丹，朱春子，田丹，等.珠江流域2022年暴雨洪水分析[J].中国农村水利水电，2023(8):41-45.HU Zhidan,ZHU Chunzi,TIAN Dan,et al.Analysis of 2022 heavy rainfall floods in the Pearl River Basin [J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2023(8):41-45.
[28] 景丞，姜彤，王艳君，等.中国区域性极端降水事件及人口经济暴露度研究[J].气象学报，2016,74(4):572-582.JING Cheng,JIANG Tong,WANG Yanjun,et al.Study on regional extreme precipitation events and population economic exposure in China[J].Journal of Meteorology,2016,74(4):572-582.
[29] 刘洁，黄本胜，陈晓宏，等.GPM 遥感降水产品在广东省的极端降水事件适用性分析[J].南水北调与水利科技(中英文),2023,21(1):87-94.LIU J,HUANG B S,CHEN X H,et al.Applicability analysis of GPM remote sensing precipitation products in extreme precipitation events in Guangdong Province[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology,2023,21(1):87-94.
[30] QI Z,SUN L,CAI Y,et al.Spatial-temporal dynamics of population exposure to compound extreme heat-precipitation events under multiple scenarios for Pearl River Basin,China[J].Climate Services,2024,34:100477.
[31] 杨霞，周鸿奎，赵克明，等.1991—2018年新疆夏季小时极端强降水特征[J].高原气象，2020,39(4):762-773.YANG Xia,ZHOU Hongkui,ZHAO Keming,et al.Characteristics of hourly extreme heavy precipitation in summer in Xinjiang from 1991—2018 [J].Plateau Meteorology,2020,39(4):762-773.
[32] LIU Y,WANG Z,DENG C,et al.Climatic characteristics of hourly extreme precipitation during the warm season in Chongqing[J].Geomatics,Natural Hazards and Risk,2024,15(1):2278893.
[33] LI Q,WU F,YANG S,et al.Statistics of warm-season hourly extreme precipitation in the Sichuan Basin,China during 2002—2021[J].Theoretical and Applied Climatology,2024,155(6):4465-4480.
[34] LAI Y,LI J,LEE T,et al.A 131-year evidence of more extreme and higher total amount of hourly precipitation in Hong Kong[J].Environmental Research Letters,2024,19(3):034008.
[35] 李若莹，姚秀萍.青藏高原东南部-川西地区夏季小时极端降水事件特征研究[J].高原气象，2024,43(5):1113-1124.LI Ruoying,YAO Xiuping.Characterization of hourly extreme precipitation events in summer over the southeastern Tibetan Plateau-Western Sichuan[J].Plateau Meteorology,2024,43(5):1113-1124.
[36] 杜尧，陈启慧，和鹏飞，等.南京地区暴雨变化特性分析[J].水资源保护，2019,35(6):89-94.DU Yao,CHEN Qihui,HE Pengfei,et al.Characterization of stormwater changes in Nanjing[J].Water Resources Conservation,2019,35(6):89-94.
[37] 殷水清，高歌，李维京，等.1961～2004年海河流域夏季逐时降水变化趋势[J].中国科学.地球科学，2012,42(2):256-266.YIN Shuiqing,GAO Ge,LI Weijing,et al.Trends of summer hourly precipitation in the Haihe River Basin from 1961 to 2004[J].Science China:Earth Sciences,2012,42(2):256-266.
[38] 李争辉，罗亚丽.1980～2017年南海季风爆发前后华南前汛期降水统计特征对比分析[J].暴雨灾害，2021,40(2):101-110.LI Zhenghui,LUO Yali.Comparative analysis of statistical characteristics of precipitation in the first flood season in South China before and after the outbreak of the South China Sea monsoon from 1980 to 2017[J].Heavy Rainfall Disasters,2021,40(2):101-110.
[39] 李慧慧，栾承梅，夏栩，等.基于 CMIP6 气候模式的中国大陆未来极端降水情景预估[J].水利水电技术(中英文),2023,54 (8):16-29.LI Huihui,LUAN Chengmei,XIA Xu,et al.Prediction of future extreme precipitation scenarios in China based on CMIP6 climate model[J].Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,2023,54(8):16-29.
[40] 莫洛科夫.雨水道与合流水道[M].北京.建筑工程出版社，1956.MOLOTOV.The Rain Water and Confluent Channel[M].Beijing:Architectual Engineering Press,1956.
[41] MANN H B.Nonparametric tests against trend[J].Econometrica:Journal of the Econometric Society,1945,13(3):245-259.
[42] HIRSCH R M,SLACK J R,SMITH R A.Techniques of trend analysis for monthly water quality data[J].Water Resources Research,1982,18(1):107-121.
[43] 汪小康，崔春光，刘柯，等.中国主雨季极端小时降水时空分布和日变化特征[J].气象，2024,50(4):393-406.WANG Xiaokang,CUI Chunguang,LIU Ke,et al.Spatial and temporal distribution and daily variation characteristics of extreme hourly precipitation during the main rainy season in China[J].Meteorology,2024,50(4):393-406.
[44] 蔡新玲，蔡依晅，叶殿秀，等.1981—2020年陕西省暖季不同历时强降水时空变化特征[J/OL].干旱区地理，2024.https://link.cnki.net/urlid/65.1103.X.20240716.1646.001.CAI X L,CAI Y X,YE D X,et al.Spatial and temporal variations of heavy precipitation with different durations during warm season in Shaanxi Province from 1981 to 2020[J/OL].Arid Land Geography,2024.https://link.cnki.net/urlid/65.1103.X.20240716.1646.001.
[45] DUAN L,ZHENG J,LI W,et al.Multivariate properties of extreme precipitation events in the Pearl River basin,China:Magnitude,frequency,timing,and related causes[J].Hydrological Processes,2017,31(21):3662-3671.
[46] 严正宵，夏军，宋进喜，等.中小流域设计暴雨雨型研究进展[J].地理科学进展，2020,39(7):1224-1235.YAN Zhengxiao,XIA Jun,SONG Jinxi,et al.Research progress on design hyetographs in small and medium-scale basins[J].Progress in Geography,2020,39(7):1224-1235.
[47] 宋川，王琳，王浩程，等.降雨雨型对城市雨水系统内涝弹性的影响[J].中国农村水利水电，2024(1):197-206.SONG Chuan,WANG Lin,WANG Haocheng,et al.Impact of rainfall pattern on flooding resilience of urban stormwater systems[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2024(1):197-206.
[48] 朱奎，强思远，母小苗，等.不同降雨特征对径流过程的影响研究[J].中国农村水利水电，2021(4):33-37.ZHU Kui,QIANG Siyuan,MU Xiaomiao,et al.Study on the influence of different rainfall characteristics on the runoff process[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2021(4):33-37.
[49] 秦国帅.极端水文事件对水安全保障的影响及应对措施[J].水利发展研究，2022,22(9):10-13.QIN Guoshuai.Impact of extreme hydrological events on water security and countermeasures[J].Water Resources Development Research,2022,22(9):10-13.
[50] 戚佳晨，宋晓猛.1978—2012年长江三角洲城市群极端小时降水时空变化特征[J].水利水电技术(中英文),2023,54(12):75-92.QI Jiachen,SONG Xiaomeng.Spatial and temporal characteristics of extreme hourly precipitation in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration from 1978 to 2012[J].Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,2023,54(12):75-92.
[51] 陈星任，杨岳，何佳男，等.近60年中国持续极端降水时空变化特征及其环流因素分析[J].长江流域资源与环境，2020,29(9):2068-2081.CHEN Xingren,YANG Yue,HE Jianan,et al.Characteristics of spatial and temporal changes of sustained extreme precipitation in China over the past 60 years and analysis of its circulation factors[J].Yangtze River Basin Resources and Environment,2020,29(9):2068-2081.
[52] 杨雯婷，孙建华，傅慎明，等.1981—2020年华南地区区域性极端降水事件研究[J].大气科学，2024,48(3):906-922.YANG Wenting,SUN Jianhua,FU Shenming,et al.Study of regional extreme precipitation events in South China from 1981 to 2020[J].Atmospheric Science,2024,48(3):906-922.
[53] YU S,LUO Y,WU C,et al.Subseasonal variations of convective and microphysical characteristics of extreme precipitation over the Pearl River Delta at monsoon coast[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,2023,128(3):e2022JD037804.
[54] 刘焕彬，邱粲，王荣.气候变化背景下济南短历时暴雨强度及雨型特征[J].山东科学，2021,34(1):121-129.LIU Huanbin,QIU Chuan,WANG Rong.Characteristics of short-calendar-time rainstorm intensity and rain pattern in Jinan under the background of climate change[J].Shandong Science,2021,34(1):121-129.
[55] 兰仟，林凯荣，黄利燕，等.深圳城市两级排水系统设计暴雨重现期的衔接关系[J].南水北调与水利科技(中英文),2023,21(3):522-530.LAN Q,LIN K R,HUANG L Y,et al.Cohesive relationship of design storm return period of two-stage urban drainage system in Shenzhen City[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology,2023,21(3):522-530.
基本信息:
DOI：10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.10.006
中图分类号:P426.6
引用信息:
[1]李广宗,孙赫敏,苏布达,等.珠江流域不同历时极端降水雨型时空分布特征研究[J].水利水电技术(中英文),2025,56(10):72-83.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.10.006.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金项目(42271081,41907398); 广西重点研发计划(桂科AB22080060)