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针对污水处理BOT项目现金流的构成,探索性地对各经济要素进行预测,通过模拟计算方法进行投资项目经济风险指标的模拟计算与统计分析,应用风险概率积分模型对项目经济风险进行度量,并根据投资商对风险的好恶程度,进行项目投资风险决策.
Abstract：In accordance with the composition of cash flow for BOT project of sewage treatment,the key economic factors are estimated on trial herein,and then the simulation calculation and the statistic analysis on the economic risk indexes of the investment project concerned are made; in which the economic risk of the relevant project is measured with the integral model of risk probability and the investment risk is measured based on the investor attitude as well.
[1] 俞 波,余建星.污水处理BOT项目风险因素研究[J].水利发展研究,2002,(10):3334.
[2] 俞 波,张 曦.BOT项目经济风险指标及其度量方法[J].福州大学学报(自然科学版),2004,(6):325329.
[3] 王 维.基于Petri网与人工神经网络的宏观经济系统智能分析研究[D].天津:南开大学,2000.
基本信息:
中图分类号:F283
引用信息:
[1]俞波,余建星,练继建.污水处理BOT项目投资中的经济风险分析[J].水利水电技术,2005(06):97-101.