| 395 | 0 | 16 |
| 下载次数 | 被引频次 | 阅读次数 |
【目的】“四水四定”是十六字治水思路的具体体现，以“四水四定”为具体目标，研究缺水地区的水资源未来承载状态变化趋势进而有针对性地制定相关政策、规划对其进行干预和调控是当前水资源规划管理的前沿性议题。【方法】建立系统动力学模型探索泰安市水资源整体承载状况的时空演变规律，并在此基础上引入“四水四定”水资源承载模型进行南水北调东线二期工程生效前后泰安市城、地、人、产承载状况分析。【结果】结果显示：2035年泰安市人口总数将超载92万人，城市建成区面积超载7 267 hm2,耕地灌溉面积超载4.19万hm2,工业增加值超载339.9亿元。【结论】结果表明未来主要受产业发展制约，2017年后泰安市水资源承载指数表现出持续加重态势，面临水资源超载的风险；各区县水资源承载状况空间差异性明显，南水北调东线二期工程的生效一定程度上可改善泰安市水资源承载状况，但无法从根本上改变水资源超载问题；不考虑用水优先级情况下泰安市快速增长的工业用水可能挤压其他用水户空间，导致城、地、人、产出现不同程度超载问题。本结论可为泰安市未来水资源规划管理相关政策制定提供参考。
Abstract：[Objective]The “Basing Four Aspects on Water Resources” principle, as a concrete embodiment of the sixteen-character water governance concept, aims to investigate future trends in water resources carrying capacity in water-scarce regions and formulate targeted policies and plans for intervention and regulation. This is a key issue in contemporary planning and management of water resources.[Methods]A system dynamics model was established to explore the spatiotemporal evolution of water resources carrying capacity in Tai'an City. On this basis, the water resources carrying capacity model of “Basing Four Aspects on Water Resources” was introduced to analyze the carrying capacity of urban areas, land, population, and industry before and after the implementation of the Eastern Route Phase II project of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project.[Results]The result showed that by 2035, Tai'an's total population would exceed its capacity by 920 000 people, the urban built-up area would exceed its capacity by 7267hm2, the irrigated cultivated area would exceed its capacity by 628 000 mu, and the industrial added value would exceed its capacity by 41 900 hm2.[Conclusion]The result indicate thatfuture development will be primarily constrained by industrial growth. Since 2017, the water resources carrying capacity index of Tai'an City has shown a continuous worsening trend, facing the risk of water resource overload. The spatial differences in water resources carrying capacity across different districts and counties are significant. Although the implementation of the South-to-North Water Diversion East Route Phase II project can improve the water resources carrying capacity of Tai'an to some extent, it cannot fundamentally resolve the issue of water resource overload. Without considering water use priorities, the rapid growth of industrial water use in Tai'an may reduce water availability for other sectors, leading to varying degrees of overload in urban areas, land, population, and industry. These findings can provide a reference for developing future planning and management policies of water resources in Tai'an City.
[1] 李国英.为以中国式现代化全面推进强国建设、民族复兴伟业提供有力的水安全保障：在2024年全国水利工作会议上的讲话[J].水利发展研究，2024,24(1):1-10.LI G Y.Improved water security for China’s efforts to build itself into a stronger country and rejuvenate the Chinese nation on all fronts by pursuing Chinese modernization:Speech at the 2024 National Water Conservancy Work Conference[J].Water Resources Development Research,2024,24(1):1-10.
[2] 李明乾.变化环境下流域水循环演化研究：以辽宁省典型河流为例[D].长春：吉林大学，2022.LI M Q.Watershed Hydrological Cycle under a Changing Environment[D].Changchun:Jilin University,2022.
[3] 王浩，许新发，成静清，等.水资源保护利用“四水四定”:基本认知与关键技术体系[J].水资源保护，2023,39(1):1-7.WANG H,XU X F,CHENG J Q,et al.“Basing four aspects on water resources” in water resources protection and utilization:Basic cognition and key technology system[J].Water Resources Protection,2023,39(1):1-7.
[4] 黄昌硕，耿雷华，李春华，等.“四水四定”最严格水资源管理管控指标研究[J].水利发展研究，2024,24(7):6-11.HUANG Changshuo,GENG Leihua,LI Chunhua,et al.Research on the control indicalors of the strictest water resources management on “four water-based principles”[J].Water Resources Development Research,2024,24(7):6-11.
[5] 王浩，胡春宏，王中根，等.“四水四定”理念与流域水资源刚性约束机制研究[J].水利学报，2022,53(5):1-12.WANG H,HU C H,WANG Z G,et al.Study on the “Four Waters and Four Determinations” concept and the rigid constraint mechanism of basin water resources[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2022,53(5):1-12.
[6] 刘昌明，王中根，张建云，等.基于水资源承载力的流域高质量发展约束研究[J].人民黄河，2021,43(10):1-8.LIU C M,WANG Z M,ZHANG J Y,et al.Research on the constraints of basin high-quality development based on water resource carrying capacity[J].People’s Yellow River,2021,43(10):1-8.
[7] 杨学文，刘小慧，叶萍萍，等.熵权法和TOPSIS模型协同下的黄河流域(甘肃段)水资源承载力时空变化分析[J].测绘通报，2024(10):18-24.YANG X W,LIU X H,YE P P,et al.Spatio-temporal variation analysis of water resources carrying capacity in the Yellow River Basin (Gansu Section) in collaboration with entropy weight method and TOPSIS model[J].Bulletin of Surveying and Mapping,2024(10):18-24.
[8] 陈建刚，龚应安，郑凡东，等.基于AHP和熵权法的北京水务韧性评价体系构建[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),2024,60(5):782-788.CHEN J G,GONG Y A,ZHENG F D,et al.To establish a resilience evaluation index system of water affairs in Beijing based on AHP and entropy weight methods[J].Journal of Beijing Normal University (Natural Science),2024,60(5):782-788.
[9] YANG M Y,QU D Y,SHEN Y,et al.Evaluation of water resources carrying capacity of Zhangye City based on combined weights and TOPSIS modeling[J].Water,2023,15(24):4229.
[10] ZHAO M D,LI J H,ZHANG Y S,et al.Water cycle health assessment based on combined weight and hook trapezoid fuzzy TOPSIS model:A case study of nine provinces in the Yellow River Basin,China[J].Ecological Indicators,2023,147:109977.
[11] CACAL J C,TABOADA E B,MEHBOOB M S.Strategic implementation of integrated water resource management in selected areas of Palawan:SWOT-AHP method[J].Sustainability,2023,15(4):2922.
[12] HUANG P,WU X Y,MA C M,et al.Geo-environment vulnerability assessment of multiple geohazards using VWT-AHP:A case study of the Pearl River Delta,China[J].Remote Sensing,2023,15(20):5007.
[13] 陈冬，姚彬，沈莹莹，等.基于主成分分析的安徽省农业用水特征研究[J].中国农村水利水电，2022(11):86-90.CHEN D,YAO B,SHEN Y Y,et al.Research on agricultural water use characteristics in Anhui Province based on principal component analysis[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2022(11):86-90.
[14] 陈丽，周宏.基于模糊综合评价和主成分分析法的岩溶流域水资源承载力评价[J].安全与环境工程，2021,28(6):159-173.CHEN L,ZHOU H.Carrying capacity evaluation of water resources in karst basin based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and principal component analysis[J].Safety and Environmental Engineering,2021,28(6):159-173.
[15] 吴凡，陈伏龙，丁文学，等.基于模糊集对分析-五元减法集对势的新疆水资源承载力评价[J].长江科学院院报，2021,38(9):27-34.WU F,CHEN F L,DING W X,et al.Assessing water resources carrying capacity of Xinjiang using fuzzy set pair analysis and five-variable subtraction set pair potential[J].Journal of Yangtze River Scientific Research Institute,2021,38(9):27-34.
[16] GUO H C,SUN Y N,LI T N,et al.The analysis of present and future use of non-conventional water resources in Heilongjiang Province,China[J].Sustainability,2024,16(9):3727.
[17] WANG J C,WANG Z X,FU Z D,et al.Spatial-temporal evaluation and prediction of water resources carrying capacity in the Xiangjiang River Basin using county units and entropy weight TOPSIS-BP neural network[J].Sustainability,2024,16(18):8184.
[18] ZHAO J J.Coordinated management model of water resources utilization and regional economic development based on genetic neural network[J].International Journal of Information System Modeling and Design,2024,15(1):1-18.
[19] YIN X M,HUANG C,SUN K.Evaluation of water resources carrying capacity in Anhui Province based on association analysis model in the context of digital transformation[J].Desalination and Water Treatment,2023,299:239-247.
[20] SONG Q R,WANG Z C,WU T.Risk analysis and assessment of water resource carrying capacity based on weighted gray model with improved entropy weighting method in the central Plains region of China[J].Ecological Indicators,2024,160:111907.
[21] WANG A L,LIANG S T,WANG S S.Coupling coordination development of water resources-economy-ecology system in Shanxi Province based on system dynamics[J].Scientific Reports,2025,15:7370.
[22] 陈银花，姜丰，王赛鸽，等.基于系统动力学的北京市再生水利用潜力与生态网络特征分析[J].生态学报，2025,45(1):280-295.CHEN Y H,JIANG F,WANG S G,et al.System dynamics-based analysis of the potential and ecological network characteristics of Beijing’s reclaimed water system[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2025,45(1):280-295.
[23] 杨亚锋，李欣瑞，王红瑞，等.基于“四水四定” 的京津冀地区水资源空间均衡及其分布动态演进分析[J].水资源保护，2025,41(1):107-113.YANG Y F,LI X R,WANG H R,et al.Analysis of water resources spatial equilibrium and dynamic evolution of water resources distribution in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region based on “Basing Four Aspects on Water Resources”[J].Water Resources Protection,2025,41(1):107-113.
[24] 王浩，周祖昊，褚俊英，等.北方缺水地区“四水四定” 创新管理战略研究[J].人民黄河，2025,47(2):1-7.WANG H,ZHOU Z H,CHU J Y,et al.Innovative management strategy of “defining city,land,population and production by water” in water-scarce areas of northern China[J].Yellow River,2025,47(2):1-7.
[25] 马睿，李云玲，何君，等.我国水资源承载力分析及分区管控对策[J].南水北调与水利科技(中英文),2023,21(2):209-217.MA R,LI Y L,HE J,et al.Water resources carrying capacity analysis and zoning management measures in China[J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology,2023,21(2):209-217.
[26] ZHANG Y X,CHEN M,ZHOU W H,et al.Evaluating Beijing’s human carrying capacity from the perspective of water resource constraints[J].Journal of Environmental Sciences,2010,22(8):1297-1304.
[27] WANG S,YANG F L,XU L,et al.Multi-scale analysis of the water resources carrying capacity of the Liaohe Basin based on ecological footprints[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2013,53:158-166.
[28] PENG T,DENG H W,LIN Y,et al.Assessment on water resources carrying capacity in karst areas by using an innovative DPESBRM concept model and cloud model[J].Science of the Total Environment,2021,767:144353.
[29] 黄昌硕，耿雷华，颜冰，等.水资源承载力动态预测与调控：以黄河流域为例[J].水科学进展，2021,32(1):59-67.HUANG C S,GENG L H,YAN B,et al.Dynamic prediction and regulation of water resource carrying capacity:A case study on the Yellow River Basin[J].Advances in Water Science,2021,32(1):59-67.
[30] WANG G,XIAO C L,QI Z W,et al.Water resource carrying capacity based on water demand prediction in Chang-ji economic circle[J].Water,2021,13(1):16.
[31] WANG Y T,CHENG H X,HUANG L.Water resources carrying capacity evaluation of a dense city group:A comprehensive water resources carrying capacity evaluation model of Wuhan urban agglomeration[J].Urban Water Journal,2018,15(7):615-625.
[32] 陶佳辉.基于系统动力学的黄河流域水资源承载力动态预测与调控研究[D].南京：南京大学，2020.TAO J H.Dynamic Prediction and Regulation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in the Yellow River Basin Based on System Dynamics[D].Nanjing:Nanjing University,2020.
[33] 魏豪杉，王红瑞，郏鹏鑫，等.基于水资源空间均衡的四水四定调控模型构建与应用——Ⅰ:模型[J/OL].水资源保护，2024:1-12.[2025-07-29].https://link.cnki.net/urlid/32.1356.tv.20240306.1154.002.WEI H S,WANG H R,JIA P X,et al.Construction and application of the model of “Defining City,Land,Population and Industry Based on Water” based on spatial equilibrium of water resources Ⅰ:Model section[J].Water Resources Protection,2024:1-12.[2025-07-29].https://link.cnki.net/urlid/32.1356.tv.20240306.1154.002.
[34] 魏豪杉，王红瑞，郏鹏鑫，等.基于水资源空间均衡的四水四定调控模型构建与应用Ⅱ:应用[J/OL].水资源保护，2024:1-12.[2025-07-29].https://link.cnki.net/urlid/32.1356.TV.2024 0307.0906.002.WEI H S,WANG H R,JIA P X,et al.Construction and application of the model of “Defining City,Land,Population and Industry Based on Water” based on spatial equilibrium of water resources Ⅱ:Application section[J/OL].Water Resources Protection,2024:1-12.[2025-07-29].https://link.cnki.net/urlid/32.1356.TV.20240307.0906.002.
[35] 宋志，乐琪浪，陈绪钰，等.水资源承载力评价方法初探以及在“以水四定” 中的运用[J].沉积与特提斯地质，2021,41(1):106-111.SONG Z,LE Q L,CHEN X Y,et al.A preliminary study on evaluating method of water resources’ carrying capacities of China and its application[J].Sedimentary Geology and Tethyan Geology,2021,41(1):106-111.
[36] 王其藩.系统动力学[M].北京：清华大学出版社，1988.WANG Q F.System Dynamics[M].Beijing:Tsinghua University Press,1988.
[37] 孟辉.水利工程对规模化农业经济效益的影响[J].中国市场，2024(3):86-89.MENG H.Impact of water conservancy projects on economic benefits of large-scale agriculture[J].China Market,2024,(3):86-89.
[38] 钟瀚霖，王红瑞，杨亚锋，等.“四水四定” 理念下京津冀地区水安全评价及均衡度分析[J/OL].华北水利水电大学学报(自然科学版),2025:1-10.[2025-07-29].https://link.cnki.net/urlid/41.1432.TV.20250117.0934.002.ZHONG H L,WANG H R,YANG Y F,et al.Water security evaluation and equilibrium analysis in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region under the concept of “four determination with water”[J/OL].Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power (Natural Science Edition),2025:1-10.[2025-07-29].https://link.cnki.net/urlid/41.1432.TV.20250117.0934.002.
基本信息:
DOI：10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.11.009
中图分类号:TV213.4
引用信息:
[1]杜新龙,潘慧民,王红瑞,等.基于系统动力学模型的泰安市水资源承载力“四水四定”分析[J].水利水电技术(中英文),2025,56(11):115-126.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.11.009.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金项目(52279005); 国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3205600)