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全球气候变化和快速城市化改变了城市水循环过程,加剧了城市暴雨洪涝问题。为有效预报洪水,减轻洪涝灾害,借助水文水力模型对城市水循环的各个环节进行模拟。而单一暴雨预报数据的不确定性是使用水文水力模型模拟预报洪水面临的重大挑战。从城市雨洪模型输入不确定性的角度出发,回顾了暴雨预报技术的发展历程,总结了各种预报方法的特点、适用性和局限性,指出基于单一暴雨预报数据驱动模型预报洪水的不足,提出多源暴雨预报数据融合的基本框架。未来应强化降雨观测和定量降水预报能力,发展多源信息耦合技术,实现高精度、长预见期的洪水预报,为城市防洪减灾提供依据。
Abstract：Cities are suffering from extremely heavy rain and urban flood disaster in recent years,due to the change in the natural hydrological processes impacted by global climate change and rapid urbanization. In order to predict floods and mitigate urban flood disasters effectively,hydro-hydraulic models are used to simulate the sub-cycle of urban water cycle. However,the uncertainty of forecast data of single rainstorm is a major challenge to forecast flood in hydrological model. From the perspective of urban rain flood model input uncertainty,the development process of the rainfall observation and prediction technology is reviewed. The characteristics,applicability and limitations of different prediction methods are also summarized. Thus,the basic framework of multi-source storm forecast data fusion is proposed,and the development trend and prospect of urban flood forecasting is illustrated. That is to say,in the future,in order to realize high-precision and longterm forecast of flood forecast,it is necessary to improve the ability of rainfall observation and quantitative precipitation forecasting,and develop multi-source information coupling technology,which will provide the basis for urban flood control and disaster reduction.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2018.11.003
中图分类号:TU992.02
引用信息:
[1]吴泽宁,申言霞,王慧亮.多源城市暴雨预报数据融合研究进展[J].水利水电技术,2018,49(11):15-21.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2018.11.003.
基金信息:
国家自然科学基金重点基金项目(51739009)