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【目的】固碳量作为衡量生态系统碳循环和储存能力的重要指标对于减缓气候变化具有重要意义。【方法】基于2012—2022年MODIS(Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer)的NPP(Net Primary Productivity)数据，采用Sen+Mann-kendall趋势分析、Hurst指数等方法对济南市固碳变化特征及未来变化趋势进行定量分析。并通过景观格局指数评价方法、SPSS相关性分析，探究典型生态系统固碳能力与生态格局的关联关系。【结果】结果表明：(1)2022年济南市总固碳量达1.72×109 kg,耕地固碳量最大，林地固碳能力最强。(2)2012—2022年，济南市总固碳量增加7.5%,83.8%的区域碳储量呈增加趋势，未来83.7%的区域碳储量可能持续改善。(3)研究区总固碳量与斑块密度有显著负相关性。耕地、草地与景观格局指数不存在显著相关性；林地与景观百分比、景观形状指数、最大斑块指数有显著相关性。(4)受景观类型变化影响，稳定区固碳能力明显优于扰动区。【结论】济南市应加强对生态空间的合理布局，构建良好生态网络，优化并稳定景观格局，为城市生态系统良性循环，实现双碳目标奠定基础。
Abstract：[Objective]Carbon sequestration, as a key indicator for assessing the carbon cycle and storage capacity of ecosystems, is of great significance for mitigating climate change.[Methods]Based on Net Primary Productivity(NPP) data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) from 2012 to 2022, the Sen + Mann-Kendall trend analysis and Hurst index were used to quantitatively analyze the characteristics and future trends of carbon sequestration in Jinan City. Additionally, the relationship between carbon sequestration capacity and ecological patterns of typical ecosystems was investigated through landscape pattern index evaluation and SPSS correlation analysis.[Results]The result showed that:(1) In 2022, the total carbon sequestration in Jinan City reached 1.72×109 kg, with cropland contributing the largest amount of carbon sequestration and forest land showing the highest carbon sequestration capacity.(2) From 2012 to 2022, the total carbon sequestration in Jinan increased by 7.5%, with 83.8% of the regions showing an upward trend in carbon storage, and 83.7% of the regions were expected to continue improving in the future.(3) A significant negative correlation was observed between total carbon sequestration and patch density in the study area. Cropland and grassland showed no significant correlation with landscape pattern indices, while forest land was significantly correlated with landscape percentage, landscape shape indices, and maximum patch indices.(4) Influenced by landscape type changes, the carbon sequestration capacity of stable areas was significantly higher than that of disturbed areas.[Conclusion]Jinan City should strengthen the rational planning of ecological spaces, establish a robust ecological network, and optimize and stabilize landscape patterns, thereby laying the foundation for a sustainable urban ecosystem and achieving the “dual carbon” goals.
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基本信息:
DOI：10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.12.004
中图分类号:X171.1
引用信息:
[1]程嘉华,朱长军.济南市典型生态固碳能力时空特征及生态格局关联关系[J].水利水电技术(中英文),2025,56(12):41-53.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.12.004.
基金信息:
国家重点研发计划项目(2022-YRUC-01-050209-03); 国家自然科学基金项目(U2102209)