张炜,刘亦飞,沈明星,陈晓杰,陈锐

• 1:河海大学设计研究院有限公司
• 2:昆山市水事综合管理中心张浦管理站
• 3:长江科学院水力学研究所
• 4:武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室

摘要(Abstract)：

长江流域生态系统环境脆弱敏感，该区域植被变化受到气候变化以及人类活动等多种因素的影响。为了研究长江流域植被净初级生产力(Net Primary Productivity, NPP)对平均气候和极端气候的响应程度和方向的影响，基于MODIS NPP数据和气候数据(平均气候和极端气候),辅以Sen斜率法、变异系数、Hurst指数进一步探究了2001—2020年长江不同子流域NPP时空变化情况，并基于随机森林和结构方程模型分析了不同子流域NPP对不同气候因子的直接和间接响应。结果表明：2001—2020期间，长江流域年均NPP为528.02 gCm~(-2)a~(-1),其中金沙江石鼓以上区域NPP最低，乌江流域NPP最高。NPP变化以上升趋势为主，岷沱江、乌江和嘉陵江流域上升趋势最显著，金沙江流域、洞庭湖流域和鄱阳湖流域呈减小趋势。NPP变化呈现低波动性，岷沱江NPP变化波动性最大，鄱阳湖水系NPP变化波动性最小。NPP在未来一段时间仍会大面积以增大趋势为主。乌江、宜宾至宜昌、宜宾至湖口、洞庭湖水系、湖口及以下干流和金沙江石鼓以上区域NPP受极端气候因子影响较大，其他地区受平均气候影响较大，但不同极端气候指标对NPP产生的影响程度和影响效应存在显著差异。研究表明长江不同子流域植被生长对不同极端气候因子的响应程度存在差异，且多个气候因素对NPP的相互作用不容忽视。

关键词(KeyWords)： 植被净初级生产力(NPP);平均气候;极端气候;长江流域

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(51779183)

作者(Author): 张炜,刘亦飞,沈明星,陈晓杰,陈锐

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2022.10.013

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