朱新丽,李彦彬,李红星,冯娅

• 1:华北水利水电大学水利学院

摘要(Abstract)：

本文旨在运用一种方法,能有效地对径流时间序列的突变和渐变趋势进行分析,以减少计算量。文章运用STL法,将黑河流域札马什克、祁连、正义峡,以及莺落峡水文站实测月径流量进行季节调整。随后,对季节调整序列采用二次样条小波多孔算法,进行径流演变分析。并与传统五年滑动平均和滑动T检验法进行对比。结果显示:运用二次样条小波多孔算法,能够同时对时间序列的渐变和突变趋势做出判断;相比五年滑动平均,小波分析近似系数可以从不同程度凸显径流局部和整体趋势特征;相比滑动T检验,小波分析模极大值在对序列进行突变点检测时,不需要时间序列服从特定的分布,也不会引入过多伪突变点;相比M-K突变点检验法,不会产生漏点现象。径流变异规律分析结果表明:札马什克水文站年径流量,呈不显著上升趋势,在2006年发生突变;祁连水文站年径流量,呈现显著的上升趋势,突变时间发生在1982年和2002年;莺落峡水文站年径流量,呈显著上升的趋势,突变在2003年;正义峡水文站年径流量,整体呈不显著下降趋势,并在1990年和2004年发生突变。因此,小波分析作为变异规律分析初步诊断工具是非常有效的。

关键词(KeyWords)： 径流;变异;二次样条小波;多孔算法;黑河

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金(51779093)

作者(Author): 朱新丽,李彦彬,李红星,冯娅

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2021.10.005

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