刘祥周,肖丽英,高桂青,成玉祥,李路雨

• 1:南昌工程学院水利工程学院
• 2:南昌工程学院土木与建筑工程学院

摘要(Abstract)：

【目的】贵州省极端气候事件的频率和持续性因其独特的地形和多样气候而显著加剧，但目前关于该省极端气温方面的研究尚不完善。为掌握极端气温指数的时空变化特征并明确其主要影响因素，基于1960—2020年29个气象站气温及大尺度气候指数(PDO、ENSO、SOI、AMO)等数据，针对5个极端气温指数，【方法】运用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendall趋势检验、R/S分析了贵州省极端气温时空演变特征及未来趋势，利用相关分析及小波分析揭示了极端气温指数与大尺度气候指数等因素的联系。【结果】结果表明：(1)时间变化上，寒潮持续时间和霜冻时间显著减少，然而，月极端最低和最高气温以及夏日数均表现出上升趋势；极端气温指数的突变均集中于20世纪末至21世纪初；在未来5年内，极端气温指数将继续保持这种趋势；空间分布上，自西向东方向，低温指数的多年平均值逐渐减少，高温指数则逐渐增加；(2)寒潮持续指数发生突变很可能受到ENSO、SOI较长年际周期(2～16 a)的影响，极端高温指数则受到较短周期(2～4 a)的影响。另外，霜冻日数、月极端最低气温与海拔呈显著负相关性。【结论】极端气温指数变化的影响因素主要是气候与海拔，另外还有人类活动方面。研究结果为灾害预防与对地方气候影响等决策提供科学依据。

关键词(KeyWords)： 空间差异;R/S分析;相关性分析;极端气温指数;贵州省;气候变化;Mann-Kendall趋势检验;时空变化

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(52069015,52069014);国家自然科学基金青年基金项目(52109090);; 江西省学位与研究生教育教学改革研究项目(JXYJG-2021-210);; 江西省科技厅项目(20212BDH81002)

作者(Author): 刘祥周,肖丽英,高桂青,成玉祥,李路雨

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.01.004

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