王晓颖,宋培兵,徐红霞,张峰,王超,孔令仲

• 1:安徽水利水电职业技术学院
• 2:水电水利规划设计总院
• 3:中国水利水电科学研究院
• 4:扬州大学水利科学与工程学院

摘要(Abstract)：

【目的】分析调水工程水源区和受水区的径流丰枯遭遇特性,可为合理制定调水方案、相机实施工程调水提供科学依据。【方法】以引江济淮工程为例,根据大通站和鲁台子站1956—2022年月径流实测资料,采用相关性系数、标准化径流指数,以及构建边缘分布函数和二维Copula函数的联合概率分布模型,描述单站径流丰枯变化和揭示二维径流互补规律。【结果】结果显示:大通站径流和鲁台子站径流在年、丰水期和枯水期时间尺度下均表现出较弱的相关性,对应的Kendall相关系数分别为0.216、0.273和0.227。4—6月为大通站径流的丰水月份,对应的丰水概率为0.313、0.328和0.373;6月、8月则为鲁台子站径流的枯水月份,对应的枯水概率为0.209和0.179。年、丰水期和枯水期对应的径流组合丰枯异步的概率分别为54.5%、52.5%和52.2%;此外,这三个时间尺度下有利于从水源区向受水区调水的概率分别为72.7%、73.7%、73.9%。【结论】Gamma分布可以较好地拟合不同时间尺度下径流的分布特性,Frank Copula、Frank Copula和Clayton Copula分别是大通站和鲁台子站年、丰水期和枯水期径流组合的最优Copula函数;不同时间尺度下径流组合丰枯异步的概率均大于丰枯同步的概率。

关键词(KeyWords)： 径流;调水工程;丰枯遭遇;标准化径流指数;边缘分布;Copula函数;影响因素

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 安徽省高等学校科学研究项目(KJ2021A1454);; 安徽省自然科学基金水科学联合基金项目(2208085US06);; 中国水力发电学会青年人才托举项目(2024015);; 国家自然科学基金项目(52009119)

作者(Author): 王晓颖,宋培兵,徐红霞,张峰,王超,孔令仲

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.02.010

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