孙晓慧,刘国庆,唐莉

• 1:太原理工大学

摘要(Abstract)：

【目的】研究全球气候变化背景下极端降水规律，有助于生态保护、气候变化应对、水资源管理和环境影响评估。【方法】根据1975—2020年山西省27个气象站的日降水数据，对山西省46 a极端降水事件进行筛选，计算出ETCCDMI推荐的10个极端降水指标，采用显著性水平(P＿value)、趋势斜率(Slope)、平均值(Mean＿value)及中位数(Median＿value)等11个特征指标来分析数据的趋势和分布情况，叠加地貌类型计算出相应的极端降水指数特征，分析不同地貌类型下极端降雨事件的强度、分布及趋势变化规律，探讨极端降雨与地貌类型的相关关系，揭示极端降雨在各种地貌类型的分布特征。【结果】山西省站点CDD全部呈现降低趋势，达到显著性的站点占比为81%;除CWD以外，其余8个极端降水指标都以正相关站点数较多，PRCPTOT、R10mm、Rx1day与Rx5day正相关站点比例分别达到了74%、74%、69%与67%,但整体显著低；山西省CDD空间分布上表现为自南向北，自西向东减少趋势增加，CDD的平均值等6个指标具有相似的空间分布特征，表现为自北向南梯度式逐渐减少。CV等三个指标具有相似的空间分布特征，都以东南部阳泉与忻州交界处自北向南辐射减少，山西省北部的干旱情况较南部缓解快；山西省海拔与CDD、CWD、PRCPTOT、R10mm及Rx5day指数存在一定的显著相关性，与CDD的Slope、CWD的Median、Ave＿Year＿Change、Q50值，及RX5day的Min值都呈现显著的负相关关系(-0.44、-0.41、-0.42、-0.41、-0.45),与PRCPTOT及R10mm的Slope值呈现显著的正相关关系(0.46,0.45),与SDII的6项指标都呈现显著的负相关关系，对SDII的影响整体较为显著。【结论】山西省的地形起伏度与极端气候指标的特征值无显著相关性；山西省不同地貌类型区极端降水指数特征指标分布特征不同，低海拔丘陵台地区、小起伏中山、中海拔丘陵台地的各项指标都较为分散，该地貌区内的极端气候指标需要考虑空间变异。

关键词(KeyWords)： 极端降水;特征指标;地貌类型;山西省;气候变化;生态保护;水资源;降雨

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金青年基金项目“极端降雨工况下黄土梁峁采空区入渗产流规律与机理”(42307261);; 江西省教育厅科学技术研究项目“气候变化对江西省主汛期降雨极值分布影响研究”(GJJ211945)

作者(Author): 孙晓慧,刘国庆,唐莉

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.03.004

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