孔锋,孙劭

• 1:中国农业大学人文与发展学院
• 2:清华大学应急管理研究基地
• 3:中国气象局国家气候中心

摘要(Abstract)：

"一带一路"地区是全球气候变化的敏感区和显著区,为了安全推进"一带一路"的高质量建设,亟需全面认识域内气候变化特征。基于1901—2018年英国东英格利亚大学气候研究所提供的0.5°×0.5°的网格降水数据集CRU TS4.03,采用线性趋势、变异系数等多种数理统计方法,从气候分布、变化趋势和波动特征及时相差异特征诊断"一带一路"陆域地区的降雨量时空变化特征。主要得到如下结论:(1)1901—2018年"一带一路"陆域地区年总降雨量气候分布呈现纬向地带性和海陆地带性特征,其中季风气候区和热带地区分布较大,多数超过了1 600 mm。1960年前后"一带一路"陆域地区的年总降雨量在北半球高纬度地区和东南亚地区差异显著。在时序上1901—2018年"一带一路"陆域地区年总降雨量呈增加趋势且具有30年分段并在1938年发生了突变,整体趋势值为2.90 mm/10 a, 1901—1930年、1931—1960年、1961—1990年和1991—2018年的趋势值分别为6.90 mm/10 a、15.69 mm/10 a、-0.94 mm/10 a和1.25 mm/10 a,均通过了0.05显著性水平的检验。(2)1901—2018年"一带一路"陆域地区年总降雨量在北半球高纬度地区和大洋洲呈现明显增加趋势,趋势值超过了20 mm/10 a。对比来看"一带一路"陆域高纬度地区在朝着暖湿化方向发展,而北半球中纬度地区在朝着暖干化方向发展。1960年前后"一带一路"陆域地区的年总降雨量趋势差异整体以负差异为主。(3)1901—2018年"一带一路"陆域地区年总降雨量波动特征较大的地区主要分布在非洲北部及毗邻的阿拉伯半岛、中国西部、澳大利亚中部等地区。1960年前后"一带一路"陆域地区年总降雨量的波动差异也主要集中在上述地区,但面积分布上有所减小。

关键词(KeyWords)： 降雨量;一带一路;时相差异;时空格局;变化趋势;波动特征;气候变化

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家重点研发计划项目(2018YFC1509003,2019YFC1510202);; 国家自然科学基金项目(41801064,41775078,41701103);; 中国博士后科学基金资助项目(2019T120114,2019M650756);; 中亚大气科学研究基金(CAAS201804)

作者(Author): 孔锋,孙劭

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2021.02.001

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