郝思佳,王文川,马强,李昌志,刘昌军

• 1:华北水利水电大学水资源学院
• 2:中国水利水电科学研究院防洪抗旱减灾中心

摘要(Abstract)：

【目的】近年来我国由极端降雨事件导致的洪涝灾害频发，多造成严重的经济损失及人员伤亡。针对山洪反演模拟过程中数据收集及模拟方法选型困难的问题，为了在实际实施复盘中制定广适性的模拟方案，提出基于水文、水动力模型的山洪灾害快速复盘模拟策略。【方法】选取河南省王宗店“7·20”山洪灾害典型事件，采用国产水文、水动力模型，结合激光点云测量技术对此次极端降雨造成的山洪灾害进行数字化重演。【结果】结果显示：考虑由于上游桥梁拥堵而造成的溃决，王宗店村模拟洪峰流量达到782 m~3/s,与灾后调查结果基本一致，相对误差+8%;12:00至14:00随着降雨量的不断增大，王宗店村上游大部分地区淹没水深达到2～5 m,王宗店村附近与下游地区大部分淹没水深超过5 m。【结论】结果表明：王宗店村“7·20”重大山洪灾害主要成因在于极端暴雨导致山区洪水汇集、路基壅水溃决后，高位洪水短距离快速涌流至村内，造成大量人员伤亡。经验证，基于水文水动力模型的山洪灾害复盘策略可以进行来水分析与洪水过程模拟，为今后我国山洪灾害复盘模拟分析、灾后重建提供技术支撑。

关键词(KeyWords)： 水文模型;水动力模型;山洪灾害;灾害复盘分析;河南暴雨;极端降雨;气候变化;洪水预报

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家重点研发计划项目(2019YFC1510603);; 水利部重大科技项目(SKR-2022034)

作者(Author): 郝思佳,王文川,马强,李昌志,刘昌军

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2023.06.001

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