付潇然,王中根,祁书文,孙洪泉,蔡静雅

• 1:应急管理部国家自然灾害防治研究院
• 2:复合链生自然灾害动力学应急管理部重点实验室
• 3:中国科学院大学

摘要(Abstract)：

【目的】近年来，全球气候变暖导致极端降水强度不断加剧，引发的山洪灾害严重威胁人类生存与发展。为提高防灾减灾救灾应急处置能力，从历史典型山洪事件中深入理解灾害发生的原因，总结并吸取经验教训，发现灾害应对过程中的问题短板。【方法】以2022年发生在黑龙江、四川、山西、青海等地的6起山洪灾害为例，综合运用灾害现场调查、灾情统计、归因分析和分类梳理等方法，从灾害成因和应急防范视角出发，客观复盘灾害发生应对全过程。系统分析对比了6起灾害事件所呈现的共性规律与差异特征，厘清监测预警、响应联动等应对防范过程中暴露出的问题和不足，并提出了对策建议。【结果】对比发现：有5起灾害事件是因短历时强降雨诱发山洪成灾，且均发生在我国夜雨现象频发高发地区，增加了山洪灾害的危险性和应急救援难度；有3起山洪灾害事件发生在我国西部高山峡谷区，属于山洪灾害重点防范区域；有4起事件因人类活动区域叠加险情精准感知、临灾及时预警能力不足，加剧了山洪受灾的严重程度。【结论】结果表明：2022年发生的6起典型山洪灾害具有短时强降雨、洪水迅猛、威胁严重等特点。尽管我国已采取一系列治理措施且取得了长足进展，但在应对突发性山洪灾害防范过程中尚有提升空间。建议坚持“以防为主”的山洪灾害防治策略，探索人员转移避险的险情精准监测和临灾及时预警技术研究，吸取历次山洪灾害复盘分析的经验教训，不断提升我国基层应对山洪灾害的综合能力。

关键词(KeyWords)： 复盘分析;暴雨山洪;成因分析;应急响应;监测预警;气候变化;降雨;山洪灾害

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 第二次青藏高原综合科学考察研究专题(2019QZKK0903-02);; 国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFB3901203);; 国家自然科学基金项目(41971039;52379008)

作者(Author): 付潇然,王中根,祁书文,孙洪泉,蔡静雅

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2024.11.002

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