李晨远,黄忠伟,袁星,吴杰峰

• 1:南京信息工程大学水文与水资源工程学院
• 2:水利部水文气象灾害机理与预警重点实验室

摘要(Abstract)：

【目的】在全球气候变化的背景下，人类用水活动对水文干旱造成了剧烈影响。评估人类用水活动对水文干旱特征的影响，揭示基于单一模型评估的不确定性，对提升干旱风险应对能力有着重要意义。【方法】基于跨部门影响模型比较计划第二阶段(ISIMIP2a)项目提供的1971—2010年径流模拟结果，采用多模型集合方法评估气候变化背景下人类用水活动对我国区域水文干旱特征的影响，并揭示其空间差异及长期变化。【结果】结果显示：人类用水活动加剧了我国北方流域的水文干旱的频次、历时和强度，其中导致水文干旱强度增幅超过40%;同时人类用水活动对南方流域中上游地区水文干旱强度起到缓解作用；另外，相较于1971—1990年，1991—2010年间人类用水活动对我国区域水文干旱频次和历时的影响分别减少7.4%和10.2%,但对于水文干旱强度的影响增加43.1%,尤其是在辽河、西南诸河和珠江流域。【结论】人类用水活动对我国区域的水文干旱特征(频次、历时和强度)的影响表现出明显的时空差异性，基于多模型集合评估方法能够有效降低基于单一模型模拟结果的不确定性。研究深化了干旱演变机制理解，为应对变化环境下干旱风险提供科学支持。

关键词(KeyWords)： 气候变化;人类用水活动;大尺度水文模型;水文干旱;不确定性

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家重点研发计划(2018YFA0606002);; 国家自然科学基金面上项目(41875105)

作者(Author): 李晨远,黄忠伟,袁星,吴杰峰

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2023.10.010

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