张成,吴传森,蒯升阳,彭泽栋,常溶溶,张尚弘

• 1:华北电力大学水利与水电工程学院

摘要(Abstract)：

长江上游镇江关流域作为生态脆弱区，其径流驱动机制研究对于流域的发展十分关键。当前对该流域径流分析的研究多集中于水沙关系和径流时空变化分析方面，对于径流归因分析的研究不足。针对镇江关流域径流变化成因复杂的问题，为了明确河川径流变化的主导因素，基于Budyko假设建立了适用于镇江关流域的水热耦合模型。根据下垫面变化强弱划分径流序列的不同阶段，计算反映镇江关流域下垫面特征的参数ω,进而量化气候变化和下垫面变化对径流产生的影响。结果表明，1985—2015年间镇江关流域径流量呈现总体上升趋势，其中2003—2008年间气候变化、下垫面变化的贡献率分别为65.6%和34.4%;2009—2015年间气候变化、下垫面变化的贡献率分别为57.6%和42.4%,气候变化仍是影响径流变化的主导因素。研究结果有利于深入认识变化环境对流域径流变化的影响，对未来水资源系统规划设计与流域水土保持工作具有重要意义。

关键词(KeyWords)： Budyko假设;归因分析;径流变化;气候变化;下垫面变化;人类活动;长江流域;数值模拟

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(52061135104);; 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(2019MS030)

作者(Author): 张成,吴传森,蒯升阳,彭泽栋,常溶溶,张尚弘

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2022.08.008

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