邓健,刘文新

• 1:中国科学院东北地理与农业生态研究所
• 2:中国科学院大学资源与环境学院

摘要(Abstract)：

【目的】水、能源、粮食是保障人类生存与福祉的重要物质基础，研究吉林省水-能源-粮食系统的耦合协调发展状况，以促进吉林省水、能源、粮食的可持续发展。【方法】以吉林省为研究区，建立水-能源-粮食(W-E-F)系统综合发展评价指标体系，利用耦合协调度模型定量评价2003—2020年W-E-F系统耦合协调状况，运用GM(1,1)预测2021—2030年耦合协调度。【结果】结果表明：吉林省W-E-F系统综合发展评价指数呈现波动上升趋势，由0.29增长至0.67,其中水资源系统发展指数对综合系统发展指数影响大；耦合度在0.88～0.99范围内，处于高水平耦合阶段，耦合协调关系由勉强失衡逐步发展到中级协调水平，表现出向好的趋势，预测2030年将达到高级协调，最后为促进吉林省W-E-F系统耦合协调发展提出了相关建议。【结论】耦合协调度模型能够有效定量评价吉林省水-能源-粮食系统的协调发展状况，为吉林省水-能源-粮食系统协调发展提供科学参考。

关键词(KeyWords)： 水-能源-粮食系统;耦合协调度模型;GM(1,1);人类活动;吉林省

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(42071275);; 中国科学院A类战略性先导科技专项子课题(XDA23060405);; 中国工程院院地合作重点咨询项目(JL2020-001)

作者(Author): 邓健,刘文新

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2023.10.011

参考文献(References)：

• [1] KARABULUT A,EGOH B N,LANZANOVA D,et al.Mapping water provisioning services to support the ecosystem-water-food-energy nexus in the Danube river basin[J].Ecosystem services,2016,17:278-292.
• [2] DE AMORIM W S,VALDUGA I B,RIBEIRO J M P,et al.The nexus between water,energy,and food in the context of the global risks:An analysis of the interactions between food,water,and energy security[J].Environmental Impact Assessment Review,2018,72:1-11.
• [3] 孙才志，郝帅，赵良仕.中国水资源-能源-粮食纽带系统效率时空分异特征[J].水资源保护，2021,37(1):61-68.SUN Caizhi,HAO Shuai,ZHAO Liangshi.Spatial and temporal variation characteristics of the efficiency of the water-energy-food nexus system in China[J].Water Resources Protection,2021,37(1):61-68.
• [4] SADEGHI S H,MOGHADAM E S,DELAVAR M,et al.Application of water-energy-food nexus approach for designating optimal agricultural management pattern at a watershed scale[J].Agricultural Water Management,2020,233:106071.
• [5] ZHANG C,CHEN X,LI Y,et al.Water-energy-food nexus:Concepts,questions and methodologies[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2018,195:625-639.
• [6] BAZILIAN M,ROGNER H,HOWELLS M,et al.Considering the energy,water and food nexus:Towards an integrated modelling approach[J].Energy policy,2011,39(12):7896-7906.
• [7] 吴普特.实体水-虚拟水统筹管理保障国家粮食安全[J].灌溉排水学报，2020,39(7):1-6.WU Pute.Integrated physical water-virtual water management for national food security [J].Journal of Irrigation and Drainage,2020,39(7):1-6.
• [8] 王建华，陈步科，胡鹏.构筑五水统筹治理体系推动黄河口大保护与高质量发展[J].人民黄河，2020,42(9):16-20.WANG Jianhua,CHEN Buke,HU Peng.Constructing a five-water integrated governance system to promote the protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Estuary [J].Yellow River,2020,42(9):16-20.
• [9] 李桂君，黄道涵，李玉龙.水-能源-粮食关联关系：区域可持续发展研究的新视角[J].中央财经大学学报，2016(12):76-90.LI Guijun,HUANG Daohan,LI Yulong.Water-energy-food nexus:A new perspective for regional sustainable development research[J].Journal of Central University of Finance and Economics,2016(12):76-90.
• [10] 白景锋，张海军.中国水-能源-粮食压力时空变动及驱动力分析[J].地理科学，2018,38(10):1653-1660.BAI Jingfeng,ZHANG Haijun.Analysis of spatial and temporal variability of water-energy-food stress in China and its driving forces[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2018,38(10):1653-1660.
• [11] 王雨，王会肖，杨雅雪，等.黑龙江省水-能源-粮食系统动力学模拟[J].水利水电科技进展，2020,40(4):8-15.WANG Yu,WANG Huixiao,YANG Yaxue,et al.Simulation of water-energy-grain system dynamics in Heilongjiang Province [J].Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources,2020,40(4):8-15.
• [12] 张宁，杨肖，陈彤.中国西部地区水-能源-粮食系统耦合协调度的时空特征[J].中国环境科学，2022,42(9):4444-4456.ZHANG Ning,YANG Xiao,CHEN Tong.Spatial and temporal characteristics of the coupled water-energy-food system coordination in western China[J].China Environmental Science,2022,42(9):4444-4456.
• [13] 孙才志，阎晓东.中国水资源-能源-粮食耦合系统安全评价及空间关联分析[J].水资源保护，2018,34(5):1-8.SUN Caizhi,YAN Xiaodong.Security evaluation and spatial correlation analysis of the coupled water-energy-grain system in China[J].Water Resources Protection,2018,34(5):1-8.
• [14] 赵良仕，刘思佳.黄河流域地级市水-能源-粮食系统耦合及空间关联研究[J].水资源与水工程学报，2022,33(4):14-23.ZHAO Liangshi,LIU Sijia.Coupling and spatial correlation of water-energy-food systems in prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River basin[J].Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering,2022,33(4):14-23.
• [15] 张洪芬，曾静静，曲建升，等.资源高强度流动区水、能源和粮食耦合协调发展研究：以京津冀地区为例[J].中国农村水利水电，2019(5):17-21.ZHANG Hongfen,CENG Jingjing,QU Jiansheng,et al.Study on the coupled and coordinated development of water,energy and food in a high intensity resource flow area:The example of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2019(5):17-21.
• [16] 赵勇，常奂宇，桑学锋，等.京津冀水资源-粮食-能源-生态协同调控研究Ⅱ:应用[J].水利学报，2022,53(10):1251-1261.ZHAO Yong,CHANG Huanyu,SANG Xuefeng,et al.Synergistic water-food-energy-ecology regulation study in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei II:Application [J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2022,53(10):1251-1261.
• [17] 仇蕾，钟雨纯，崔韵文.基于水—能—粮关联关系的粮食主产区农业种植结构优化研究：以吉林省为例[J].中国农业资源与区划，2022,43(10):51-62.CHOU Lei,ZHONG Yuchun,CUI Yunwen.Study on the optimization of agricultural planting structure in the main grain producing areas based on water-energy-food correlation:Jilin Province as an example[J].Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning,2022,43(10):51-62.
• [18] 许晓鸿，王跃邦，刘明义，等.吉林省雨水资源化利用探讨[J].水土保持研究，2007(2):25-26.XU Xiaohong,WANG Yuebang,LIU Mingyi,et al.Exploring the resource utilization of rainwater in Jilin Province [J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2007(2):25-26.
• [19] 朱光磊，赵春子，佟守正，等.吉林省水资源利用与经济发展关系研究[J].西南大学学报(自然科学版),2021,43(6):122-128.ZHU Guanglei,ZHAO Chunzi,TONG Shouzheng,et al.Study on the relationship between water resources utilization and economic development in Jilin Province [J].Journal of Southwest University(Natural Science),2021,43(6):122-128.
• [20] 徐北春，张晓峰，杨宁，等.以农业高质量发展提升吉林省粮食安全保障能力[J].玉米科学，2020,28(6):187-190.XU Beichun,ZHANG Xiaofeng,YANG Ning,et al.Improving the food security guarantee capacity of Jilin Province with high-quality agricultural development [J].Journal of Maize Sciences,2020,28(6):187-190.
• [21] 邓鹏，陈菁，陈丹，等.区域水-能源-粮食耦合协调演化特征研究：以江苏省为例[J].水资源与水工程学报，2017,28(6):232-238.DENG Peng,CHEN Jing,CHEN Dan,et al.The evolutionary characteristics analysis of the coupling and coordination among water ,energy and food:Take Jiangsu Province as an example [J].Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering,2017,28(6):232-238.
• [22] 王凯，李景保，李欢.山西省水-能源-粮食系统耦合协调时空变化特征研究[J].水资源与水工程学报，2020,31(3):45-52.WANG Kai,LI Jingbao,LI Huan.Study on the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of coupled water-energy-grain system coordination in Shanxi Province [J].Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering,2020,31(3):45-52.
• [23] 张真真，单延功，陈家栋，等.南京市水资源脆弱性动态变化及驱动因素分析[J].水利发展研究，2022,22(3):62-68.ZHANG Zhenzhen,SHAN Yangong,CHEN Jiadong,et al.Analysis of dynamic changes and driving factors of water resource vulnerability in Nanjing[J].Water Resources Development Research,2022,22(3):62-68.
• [24] 李元年.基于熵理论的指标体系区分度测算与权重设计[D].南京：南京航空航天大学，2008.LI Yuannian.The differentiation degree measurement and weight design of index system based on entropy theory [D].Nanjing:Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,2008.
• [25] 陈小华，李小平，王菲菲，等.苏南地区湖泊群的富营养化状态比较及指标阈值判定分析[J].生态学报，2014,34(2):390-399.CHEN Xiaohua,LI Xiaoping,WANG Feifei,et al.Comparison of the eutrophication status of lake groups in southern Jiangsu and analysis of the determination of indicator thresholds[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2014,34(2):390-399.
• [26] 王兆峰，霍菲菲，徐赛.湘鄂渝黔旅游产业与旅游环境耦合协调度变化[J].经济地理，2018,38(8):204-213.WANG Zhaofeng,HUO Feifei,XU Sai.Changes in the coordination degree of coupling between tourism industry and tourism environment in Xiang-Eu-Chong-Qian [J].Economic Geography,2018,38(8):204-213.
• [27] 王淑佳，孔伟，任亮，等.国内耦合协调度模型的误区及修正[J].自然资源学报，2021,36(3):793-810.WANG Shujia,KONG Wei,REN Liang,et al.Misconceptions and corrections of domestic coupled coordination degree models [J].Journal of Natural Resources,2021,36(3):793-810.
• [28] 吴文泽，张涛.GM(1,1)模型的改进及应用[J].统计与决策，2019,35(9):15-18.WU Wenze,ZHANG Tao.Improvement and application of the GM(1,1) model [J].Statistics & Decision,2019,35(9):15-18.
• [29] 孙亚静，安佳，侍术凯.产业结构调整视角下吉林省低碳经济发展研究[J].税务与经济，2020(5):103-108.SUN Yajing,AN Jia,SHI Shukai.Research on low-carbon economy development in Jilin Province from the perspective of industrial structure adjustment [J].Taxation and Economy,2020(5):103-108.
• [30] 王滨.黑龙港地区水土资源综合质量评价与耦合协调关系研究[D].北京：中国地质科学院，2012.WANG Bin.Study on the comprehensive quality evaluation and coupled coordination relationship of soil and water resources in Heilonggang area [D].Beijing:Chinese Academy of Geological Sciences,2012.
• [31] 王丽川，侯保灯，周毓彦，等.城市水-能源-粮食耦合协调发展研究[J].水利水运工程学报，2021(1):9-17.WANG Lichuan,HOU Baodeng,ZHOU Yuyan,et al.Study on the coordinated urban water-energy-food coupling development[J].Hydro-Science and Engineering,2021(1):9-17.
• [32] 毕博，陈丹，邓鹏，等.区域水资源-能源-粮食系统耦合协调演化特征研究[J].中国农村水利水电，2018(2):72-77.BI Bo,CHEN Dan,DENG Peng,et al.The evolutionary characteristics analysis of coupling and coordination of regional water-energy-food[J].China Rural Water and Hydropower,2018(2):72-77.
• [33] 李溦，姜珊，赵勇，等.基于Copula的WEF耦合系统安全评价及联合风险概率计算：以京津冀为例[J].水资源保护，2023:1-15.LI Wei,JIANG Shan,ZHAO Yong,et al.Copula-based safety evaluation of WEF coupled systems and joint risk probability calculation-using Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei as an example [J].Water Resources Protection,2023:1-15.
• [34] 何国华，姜珊，赵勇，等.我国现状能源与水纽带关系定量识别[J].南水北调与水利科技(中英文),2020,18(4):54-70.HE Guohua,JIANG Shan,ZHAO Yong,et al.Quantitative identification of the current energy-water nexus in China [J].South-to-North Water Transfers and Water Science & Technology,2020,18(4):54-70.