面向洪水预报的雨量站网合理性评估与优化研究(英文)Evaluation and optimization of rainfall station network rationality for flood forecasting
陈安琪,刘玉玉,高艺雄,徐征和,桑国庆,刘鲁霞,刘薇,李庆国
摘要(Abstract):
【目的】雨量站作为专为收集降水资料而设计的观测点,是收集水情信息的重要来源。雨量站的合理布设可以及时、准确地反映流域降水情况,是洪水预报的必要信息。【方法】以山东省弥河流域为研究对象,基于锥体梯度法和泰森多边形理论,对现有雨量站网的合理性进行了评估。结合信息熵理论和最大信息最小冗余准则(MIMR),利用流域内22个地面雨量站的小时尺度降水序列,构建雨量站网优化模型,提出优化方案。【结果】结果表明,流域部分雨量站控制面积过大且部分雨量站之间相关性较差;雨量站间信息熵的变化规律表明:随着迭代次数的变化,联合熵逐渐变大并最终趋于稳定,互信息先增大后减小,冗余度越来越大,迭代17次后所选站点的信息量占信息总量的比值达98%;考虑到洪水预报的要求,建议在合理位置增设5个雨量站并改进修缮1个雨量站。【结论】优化后的雨量站网能更好地反映流域降雨信息。研究成果可为今后优化流域雨量站网提供理论依据。
关键词(KeyWords): 熵;MIMR;雨量站;洪水预报;降水;气候变化;时空分布;互信息
基金项目(Foundation): National Natural Science Foundation of China(42377077);; Natural Foundation of Shandong Province(ZR202102270263);; Major Subject Fund of University of Jinan(Research on the Coordinated and Efficient Utilization Technology of Water Resources in Mi River Basin under the Background of High Quality Development)~~
作者(Author): 陈安琪,刘玉玉,高艺雄,徐征和,桑国庆,刘鲁霞,刘薇,李庆国
DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2024.05.001
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