雷苏琪,胡振鹏,熊斌,何中政,郑抒晨,郭雪东

• 1:国家能源集团江西电力有限公司江西万安水力发电厂
• 2:南昌大学鄱阳湖环境与资源利用教育部重点实验室
• 3:南昌大学工程建设学院

摘要(Abstract)：

水库汛限水位动态控制是水资源利用和防洪中的研究热点之一。然而，预泄能力约束法下，水位动态控制域与预报预泄期洪水过程的数量关系尚未探明，这为在变化环境下开展汛限水位动态控制留下了防洪隐患。以万安水库汛期动态控制上下限研究为例，通过涨速量化分析方法，研究了预报预泄期大洪水涨速对水位动态控制域推求的影响。结果显示，万安水库控制上限与预泄末期18～48 h时段内洪水起涨平均上涨率呈十分显著的负相关，即，5场典型50 a一遇设计洪水预泄末期48 h起涨速率分别为334 m~3·s~(-1)·h~(-1)、522 m~3·s~(-1)·h~(-1)、468 m~3·s~(-1)·h~(-1)、1043 m~3·s~(-1)·h~(-1)、812 m~3·s~(-1)·h~(-1),相应推求的上限水位分别为93.6 m、92.2 m、91.0 m、88.5 m、89.4 m。上述结果表明，大洪水预报预泄期洪水过程(涨速)对确定水库汛期动态控制域具有决定性作用，是实施水库汛限水位动态控制预泄能力约束法的必要条件。在变化环境下，本研究对完成防洪任务、争取发电效益具有十分重要的价值。

关键词(KeyWords)： 预泄能力约束法;防洪限制水位;涨洪速率;防洪调度数学模型

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家能源集团科技项目(QT/20029);; 江西省鄱阳湖水资源与环境重点实验室资助项目(2021SKSH01);; 江西省水利厅科技项目(202123YBKT01)

作者(Author): 雷苏琪,胡振鹏,熊斌,何中政,郑抒晨,郭雪东

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2022.06.013

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