戚佳晨,宋晓猛

• 1:中国矿业大学资源与地球科学学院

摘要(Abstract)：

【目的】全球气侯变暖和快速城镇化背景下极端降水事件频发，严重影响社会经济可持续发展，特别是城市群或都市圈面临更大挑战。为准确评估长江三角洲城市群极端降水演变规律，【方法】利用135个气象站点1978—2012年小时降水资料，选取最大1小时降水量(Rx1hr)、超过95%和99%阈值小时降水量(R95pw1hr和R99pw1hr)、超过10 mm和20 mm小时降水频次(R1hr10 mm和R1hr20 mm)五个极端小时降水指标，采用滑动平均法、EOF分解法分析极端小时降水时空变化特征。【结果】结果表明：(1)除R1hr10 mm外，极端小时降水指标总体呈显著上升趋势；(2)空间上主要表现为东南多，西北少，且显著增加站点主要在江苏南部；(3)极端小时降水峰值主要集中在12—18时，占比68.1%～79.3%;(4)极端小时降水主要表现为区域一致型、正负反向型和中心型，其中第一模态以区域一致型为主，且表现出明显增长趋势。【结论】结果证实1978—2012年长江三角洲城市群极端小时降水呈现明显增加趋势，其空间格局受地形特征、城市化发展影响明显，且城市化对极端小时降水有一定促进作用。该研究有助于科学认识城市群极端降水演变，为城市群防灾减灾与合理规划提供参考。

关键词(KeyWords)： 长江三角洲城市群;极端小时降水;时空演变;经验正交分解;城市化;气候变化;降水;时空分布

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(51979271);; 江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK20211247)

作者(Author): 戚佳晨,宋晓猛

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2023.12.007

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