胡智丹,夏婷,罗琳,王忠静

• 1:水利部信息中心
• 2:北京水电水利规划设计研究院
• 3:水利部发展研究中心
• 4:清华大学水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室

摘要(Abstract)：

基于非参数检验方法 Mann-Kendall法,对黄河中游皇甫川流域的降水、平均气温和径流量的长期变化趋势和序列突变情况进行了检验,并运用水文敏感性分析和降水—径流相关关系分析两种方法探究了皇甫川流域径流锐减的原因。1985—2006年,皇甫川流域的气候暖旱化趋势显著。其中,年降水系列呈减少趋势,但减少趋势不显著;年平均气温呈明显的上升趋势,远远超过了α=0.05的显著性水平。年径流量也表现出显著的减少趋势,显著性水平α=0.1。径流突变性检验结果显示,在1998年前后皇甫川径流出现显著变化,天然时期(1985—1998年)和径流变化时期(1999—2006年)相比,年均径流量减少了60%。归因分析表明,气候变化因素对年均径流变化的贡献率为46%,说明气候变化是导致径流减少的重要因素。

关键词(KeyWords)： 径流;气候变化;Mann-Kendall法;水文敏感性分析;降水—径流相关关系;皇甫川流域

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目(51409159);; 水利部公益性行业科研专项经费资助项目(201401008)

作者(Author): 胡智丹,夏婷,罗琳,王忠静

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2018.02.005

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