明宇,潘增辉,魏丽贤,杨飒,刘宏权

• 1:河北农业大学城乡建设学院
• 2:河北省水利科学研究院

摘要(Abstract)：

【目的】水利在“双碳”目标中发挥着关键作用，探究水利措施碳减排潜力对于推动能源结构优化和实现碳中和目标具有重要意义。【方法】基于LEAP模型，结合经济与社会发展政策，采用情景分析法构建基准情景、减排情景和强化减排情景。通过提升水力发电比例、加大地热水利用力度、增加蓝碳生态系统碳汇、居民生活节水及工业节水5种减排手段，对2025—2060年河北省的碳排放情况及各情景下水利措施碳减排贡献度进行预测分析。【结果】结果显示：在基准情景下，河北省2060年碳排放总量达890.54 MtCO_2e,期间未出现峰值；减排情景各年碳排放量较基准情景均有下降，但总体趋势一致；强化减排情景于2030年以837.12 MtCO_2e碳排放量实现碳达峰，2060年降至831.46 MtCO_2e,水利措施碳减排潜力达59.08 MtCO_2e,占碳排放量的6.63%。就减排贡献率而言，提升水力发电比例和加大地热水资源利用力度是最有效的水利减排措施，两者贡献近九成碳减排量；蓝碳生态系统碳汇和节水措施虽占比相对较小，但仍对减排具有积极作用。【结论】结果表明：水利措施在河北省实现“双碳”目标中具有显著的碳减排潜力；未来应进一步优化水利措施，尤其是加强水力发电和地热资源的开发利用，同时兼顾蓝碳生态系统和节水措施的推广，以最大化水利措施在碳减排中的作用；还需各项措施在时间和空间上有效衔接，通过系统化和协调化的运作，实现预期的减排效果。研究可为河北省充分发挥水利行业碳减排作用、尽早实现“双碳”目标提供参考。

关键词(KeyWords)： 碳排放;减排潜力;水利行业;LEAP模型;情景分析;影响因素

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 河北省水利科技计划(2023-41);; 河北省重点研发项目(223742205D);; 国家重点研发计划(2016YFC0401404)

作者(Author): 明宇,潘增辉,魏丽贤,杨飒,刘宏权

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.09.007

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