宋心馨,张守志,王淑琪,邓嘉琪

• 1:延边大学地理与海洋科学学院
• 2:湿地生态功能与生态安全重点实验室

摘要(Abstract)：

【目的】揭示生态功能区土地利用(LULC)与生态系统服务价值(ESV)之间的内在关系，对于科学发挥生态系统效益和推进区域生态文明建设具有重要意义。【方法】文章利用修正后的标准等效因子，对图们江流域的ESV进行了评估，并采用地理探测器分析了ESV与温度(TEM)、降水(PRE)、归一化植被指数(NDVI)、高程(DEM)、土壤有机质含量(SOMC)和陆地表层人类活动强度(HAILS)等潜在因素的关系及其驱动下的ESV时空演变。基于《吉林省国土空间规划(2021—2035年)》和《延边朝鲜族自治州国土空间总体规划(2021—2035年)》,利用PLUS模型进行了空间约束的多情景设置，探讨在自然发展情景(S1)和目标导向情景(S2)下2030年图们江流域ESV的空间变化。【结果】结果表明，2000—2020年，研究区总ESV虽有波动但整体呈上升趋势，其中2005—2010年期间增幅最大，五年内增加了0.87×10~(10)元。林地的ESV最高，占总价值的近94%;调节服务价值(RSV)和支持服务价值(SSV)是主要的生态系统服务。因子探测结果显示，HAILS(q=0.678)是影响ESV空间分异的主要因子，其次是TEM(q=0.470)和NDVI(q=0.435),而DEM和SOMC的影响较小。相关性分析表明，ESV与景观形状指数(SI)呈负相关(-0.65),与香农多样性指数(SHDI)(0.72)和聚合指数(AI)(0.60)呈正相关。PLUS模拟结果显示，2030年林地的ESV仍将最高。灰色模型GM(1,1)预测的2030年各土地利用类型的单位ESV分别为：耕地3 394.79元/hm~2、草地10 367.71元/hm~2、水域107 954.26元/hm~2、未利用地558.64元/hm~2、湿地44 708.07元/hm~2。【结论】不同情景下ESV高值区和低值区的变化进一步验证了《规划》的科学性和实施的必要性。本研究通过预测不同土地资源管理策略下的ESV空间演变，为实现规划目标提供了空间可视化分析和数据支持，并为土地资源与环境保护综合规划及东北边疆生态功能区的可持续发展提供了参考。

关键词(KeyWords)： ESV;情景模拟;LULC;PLUS模型;驱动因素;影响因素

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金重点基金项目(41830643);国家自然科学基金项目(41461036)

作者(Author): 宋心馨,张守志,王淑琪,邓嘉琪

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.03.015

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