沈玲怡,闻童,石朋,瞿思敏,赵兰兰,李琼芳

• 1:河海大学水文水资源学院
• 2:中国灌溉排水发展中心
• 3:水利部信息中心

摘要(Abstract)：

城镇化和工业化推进以来的土地资源开发使得淮河流域下垫面变化日趋剧烈，影响了区域水文过程以及洪旱事件的发生规律。揭示极端水文事件对土地利用变化的响应机理，对淮河生态经济带发展中的空间布局优化和水安全保障具有重要意义。以淮河上游息县流域为研究对象，采用纳入空间自相关因子的回归方法进行土地利用变化驱动力分析，构建了Autologistic-CA-Markov耦合模型预测研究区未来30年间土地利用分布格局，结合SWAT模型模拟未来LUCC情景下的逐日径流过程，基于极端水文指标、Pearson相关分析和水文设计值估计等方法分析了土地利用变化下的极端水文事件演变特征。研究结果表明：(1)沿2010—2020年发展趋势推衍得到三种未来土地发展情景，数量变化上以耕地缩减和建设用地扩张为主导，主体转变模式为建设用地侵占耕地，其余地类存在小幅增减和相互转化趋势。(2)流域整体土地利用变化导致极端高流量指标逐时期递增，极端低流量指标逐渐减小，高低流量发生天数无明显改变。(3)子流域各地类变化与洪枯径流深变化表现出不同程度的相关关系，洪水径流与建设用地呈显著正相关，耕地和林地次之，为显著负相关关系；林地对枯水径流具有显著正向作用，建设用地与其呈负相关。由建设用地和耕地组成的典型子流域中，洪水径流随建设用地的大幅增加迅速上涨，枯水径流反而减少；林地面积增加的子流域洪水径流有所减缓，枯水径流得到补充。(4)LUCC2020变化至LUCC2050,洪枯径流设计值分别呈递增和递减趋势，且低重现期小洪水变幅较大。

关键词(KeyWords)： 土地利用变化;极端水文事件;SWAT模型;Autologistic-CA-Markov模型

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金重点项目(41730750)

作者(Author): 沈玲怡,闻童,石朋,瞿思敏,赵兰兰,李琼芳

DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2022.04.008

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